PROBABILISTIC PREDICTION OF PAVEMENT DISTRESS MODES

A general framework for the probabilistic prediction of pavement distress modes is presented. Using this framework, a prediction model is developed for fatigue cracking in pavements due to repetitive traffic loading. The main steps involved are: 1) probabilistic solution for primary structural response, 2) probabilistic evaluation of an empirical relationship between fatigue life and structural response, 3) calculation of mean and variance of annual cumulative fatigue damage, and 4), assessment of fatigue life with specified reliability levels. The implementation of the mathematical procedures in the form of a computer program is discussed. The use of the program to estimate fatigue life of a pavement for different design variables with specified reliability levels seems feasible with some calibration to adjust to the observed pavement performance. /Author/TRRL/