Climate variation drives dengue dynamics

Significance Dengue is a vector-borne infectious disease that threatens human health on a global scale. Because of climate change, globalization, and other factors, dengue has increasingly spread to new countries and over larger areas, from tropical to temperate zones. In this study, we found that climate has both direct effects on dengue incidence and indirect effects mediated by mosquito density, as mosquitoes are the vectors of dengue. The quantitative results derived from this study may be helpful toward advancing our understanding of how climate influences vector-borne diseases and prove useful for the control and prevention of dengue fever. Dengue, a viral infection transmitted between people by mosquitoes, is one of the most rapidly spreading diseases in the world. Here, we report the analyses covering 11 y (2005–2015) from the city of Guangzhou in southern China. Using the first 8 y of data to develop an ecologically based model for the dengue system, we reliably predict the following 3 y of dengue dynamics—years with exceptionally extensive dengue outbreaks. We demonstrate that climate conditions, through the effects of rainfall and temperature on mosquito abundance and dengue transmission rate, play key roles in explaining the temporal dynamics of dengue incidence in the human population. Our study thus contributes to a better understanding of dengue dynamics and provides a predictive tool for preventive dengue reduction strategies.