The Effect of Ordering Policy Based on Extended Time-Delay Feedback Control on the Chaotic Behavior in Supply Chains

A supply chain is a complex nonlinear system involving multiple levels and may have a chaotic behavior. The policy of each level in inventory control, demand forecast, and constraints and uncertainties of demand and supply (or production) significantly affects the complexity of its behavior. This paper compares the performance of new ordering policy based on extended time-delay feedback (ETDF) control with the well-known smooth ordering policy on the chaotic behavior in the supply chain. Exponential smoothing (ES) forecast method is used to predict the demand. The effects of inventory adjustment parameter and supply line adjustment parameter on the behavior of the supply chain are investigated. Finally, two scenarios are designed foranalysis the chaotic behavior of the supply chain and in each scenario the maximum Lyapunov exponent is calculated and drawn. Finally, the best scenario for decision-making is obtained.

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