Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction Project: bridging the gap between weather and climate

Great progress has been made in recent decades on development and applications of medium-range weather forecasts and seasonal climate predictions. The subseasonal to seasonal project will bring the weather and climate communities together to tackle the intervening time range, harnessing shared and complementary experience and expertise in forecasting, research and applications, toward more seamless weather/climate prediction systems and more integrated weather and climate services. From the societal perspective, many management decisions in agriculture and food security, water, d i s a s t e r r i sk r e du c t i on a nd h ea l t h f a ll i n t o t h e subseasonal to seasonal time range. However, this time scale has long been considered a “predictability desert”, and forecasting for this range has received much less attention than medium-range and seasonal prediction. Recently, research has indicated important potential sources of predictability in this time range through better understanding and representation of atmospheric phenomena such as the Madden–Julian Oscillation, improved coupling with, and initialization of, the land–ocean–cryosphere and stratosphere, new model developments, more comprehensive and reliable observational networks, enhanced data assimilation techniques and increasing computing resources. These improvements are expected to translate into more accurate forecasts.