Political event analysis using group support systems

Abstract Corporate and public sector managers often look to futurists for help in forecasting changes in their internal and external organizational environments. Futurists use techniques such as the Delphi method and scenario development to identify possible futures, often consisting of events and trends, occurring both globally and within a specific geographical region. As corporations expand into global markets, they become vulnerable to political events occurring in specific regions such as expropriation of assets, the imposition of currency controls, and targeted taxation. In analyzing the risk associated with these events, it is often useful to call on the opinions and judgments of knowledgeable persons closest to the events. Yet some of these persons may be reluctant to discuss their opinions openly. Therefore, it may be helpful to allow them to discuss issues among themselves under conditions of mutual anonymity. Group support systems (GSS) allow groups to conduct such discussions. We present a two-part methodology for analyzing political events using GSS, one to be used for an initial analysis and the other for a follow-up comparison. We then demonstrate our methodology by applying it to Hong Kong (1) before its reunification with the People's Republic of China (PRC) and (2) after the reunification.

[1]  Richard T. Watson,et al.  Computer augmented teamwork - a guided tour , 1992 .

[2]  A. K. Chakravarti,et al.  Modified Delphi Methodology for Technology Forecasting Case Study of Electronics and Information Technology in India , 1998 .

[3]  M. Anaam Hashmi,et al.  Importance of political risk assessment function in U.S. multinational corporations , 1992 .

[4]  Murray Turoff,et al.  The Delphi Method: Techniques and Applications , 1976 .

[5]  Leonard M. Jessup,et al.  The Effects of Anonymity on GDSS Group Process with an Idea-Generating Task , 1990, MIS Q..

[6]  Michele Govekar,et al.  Management of the political imperative in international business , 1990 .

[7]  S. Kobrin.  POLITICAL RISK : A REVIEW AND RECONSIDERATION , 2007 .

[8]  M. Mobius.  Mobius on Emerging Markets , 1996 .

[9]  Terutaka Kuwahara.  Technology Forecasting Activities in Japan , 1999 .

[10]  Robert W. Blanning,et al.  Cross-impact analysis using group decision support systems: an application to the future of Hong Kong , 1999 .

[11]  Derek W. Bunn,et al.  Forecasting Political Risk , 1978 .

[12]  Suzanne M. Crampton,et al.  Employee Monitoring: Privacy in the Workplace? , 1998 .

[13]  Taeyoung Shin,et al.  Using Delphi for a Long-Range Technology Forecasting, and Assessing Directions of Future R&D Activities The Korean Exercise , 1998 .

[14]  J. Valacich,et al.  Group Size and Anonymity Effects on Computer-Mediated Idea Generation , 1992 .

[15]  Carl H. Botan.  Communication work and electronic surveillance: A model for predicting panoptic effects , 1996 .

[16]  Ronald E. Rice,et al.  Attribution accuracy when using anonymity in group support systems , 1997, Int. J. Hum. Comput. Stud..

[17]  J. Valacich,et al.  Effects of anonymity and evaluative tone on idea generation in computer-mediated groups , 1990 .

[18]  Bruce Bueno de Mesquita,et al.  Red Flag Over Hong Kong , 1996 .

[19]  Llewellyn D. Howell,et al.  Models of political risk for foreign investment and trade: An assessment of three approaches , 1994 .

[20]  Frederick C. Stapenhurst.  Political risk analysis in north American multinationals: An empirical review and assessment , 1995 .

[21]  Laura P. Hartman.  Ethics: The Rights and Wrongs of Workplace Snooping , 1998 .

[22]  H. Triandis.  Individualism And Collectivism , 1995 .

[23]  The foreseeable future , 1996 .

[24]  Jim Sciutto.  China's Muffling of the Hong Kong Media , 1996 .

[25]  Jay F. Nunamaker,et al.  Electronic meeting systems , 1991, CACM.

[26]  William D. Coplin,et al.  The handbook of country and political risk analysis , 1994 .

[27]  D. Mercer.  Predictable futures—the drivers for change , 1996 .

[28]  C. R. Kennedy.  Political Risk Management: International Lending and Investing Under Environmental Uncertainty , 1987 .

[29]  Kerstin Cuhls,et al.  Current Foresight Activities in France, Spain, and Italy , 1999 .

[30]  P. C. Meagher,et al.  California energy futures: Two alternative societal scenarios and their energy implications , 1980 .

[31]  Jay F. Nunamaker,et al.  Lessons from a Dozen Years of Group Support Systems Research: A Discussion of Lab and Field Findings , 1996, J. Manag. Inf. Syst..

[32]  J. Valacich,et al.  Idea Generation in Computer-Based Groups: A New Ending to an Old Story , 1994 .

[33]  Sergio L. Schmukler,et al.  Country Fund Discounts, Asymmetric Information and the Mexican Crisis of 1994: Did Local Residents Turn Pessimistic Before International Investors? , 1996 .

[34]  Alain Pinsonneault,et al.  Anonymity in group support systems research: new conceptualization and measure , 1997, Proceedings of the Thirtieth Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences.

[35]  Robert W. Blanning,et al.  Building scenarios for Hong Kong using EMS , 1998 .

[36]  Geoffrey P. Hammond,et al.  Alternative Energy Strategies for the United Kingdom Revisited , 1998 .

[37]  Ilkka A. Ronkainen,et al.  International Business and Trade in the Next Decade: Report from a Delphi Study , 1997 .

[38]  Richard S. Rosenberg,et al.  The Workplace on the Verge of the 21st Century , 1999 .

[39]  Spyros Makridakis,et al.  The Handbook of forecasting: A manager's guide , 1983 .

[40]  J. Garten.  The Big Ten: The Big Emerging Markets And How They Will Change Our Lives , 1997 .

[41]  J. D. L. Torre,et al.  Forecasting political risks for international operations , 1988 .

[42]  Markku Wilenius,et al.  Climate in the making , 1997 .

[43]  William H. Overholt,et al.  The rise of China : how economic reform is creating a new superpower , 1994 .

[44]  S. Lo,et al.  From colony to SAR : Hong Kong's challenges ahead , 1995 .

[45]  Craig K. Tyran,et al.  Group Support Systems for Strategic Planning , 1997, J. Manag. Inf. Syst..