Markov Chain

Many problems can not be solved analytically, but can be solved using statistical sampling. This idea is certainly old and was first used in a question by Georges-Louis Leclerc, Comte de Buffon (Buffon’s needle experiment) and William Gosset. Although these early applications were typically used to simulate data on a understood analytical problem. In 1945 and the following years Nicolas Metropolis and others, including Stanislaw (Stan) Ulam developed statistical sampling method to test the ENIAC computer. Metropolis coined the term Monte Carlo methods (the famous casino town in Monaco in Southern France) [influenced by the fondness of poker of Ulam who had an uncle who once borrowed money to go gambling in Monte Carlo]. Enrico Fermi was using statistical sampling for many problems in the 1930 and later, but he never published his way but used it to impress others about the accuracy of results. In 1953 Metropolis et al. described the now famous Metropolis algorithm and so the first Markov chain Monte Carlo method.