The Influenza A(H1N1)v Pandemic: An Exploratory System Dynamics Approach

This paper presents a small exploratory System Dynamics model related to the dynamics of the 2009 flu pandemic, also known as the Mexican flu, swine flu, or A(H1N1)v. The model was developed in May 2009 in order to quickly foster understanding about the possible dynamics of this new flu variant and to perform rough-cut policy explorations. Later, the model was also used to further develop and illustrate the use of Exploratory System Dynamics models as scenario generators for Exploratory Modelling and Analysis. The paper starts with an introduction to, and a description of, the exploratory System Dynamics model, followed by a discussion of plausible behaviours, sensitivity, what-if and policy analyses. The model is subsequently used to illustrate the Exploratory System Dynamics Modelling and Analysis approach: base case behaviours are discussed, followed by sensitivity, what-if and policy analyses. Finally some concluding remarks and policy recommendations are formulated.