The Development of a Computer Simulation Model of Driver Performance to Predict Accident Probability

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) is sponsoring the development of a computer simulation model of driver/vehicle system performance in various accidently likely traffic scenarios. Its acronym is DRIVEM (Driver Vehicle Effectiveness Model). By modeling driver detection of critical events (e.g., lead car deceleration), evasive maneuver decision making, control inputs, and the subsequent vehicle trajectory, DRIVEM can translate the diverse research data on driver performance into quantitative predictions of accident probability. When the model is fully developed, NHTSA will have an analytic tool to permit it to quickly and inexpensively compare alternative crash avoidance measures. This paper summarizes the development of DRIVEM, its submodels, its limitations, and needed refinements.