The Cost and Price Dilemma of Scholarly Journals.

This paper examines the overall cost ofthe scientific scholarlyjournal system and finds rhat the relative system costs have not increased since the late i970s. Why then have journal prices skyrockered over this same period? We first describe typical scholarly publishing costs, because to understandjournal prices one must understand the factors that affect these costs' We then describe some factors that have likely contributed to spiraling price increases and changes in journal subscription demand. Finally, we discuss some alternative pricing policies that might help in the future. This paper summarizes results reported in a recent book.' Toward.s Electronic JournaLs; Realities for Scientists, Librarians, and Publishei's by the authors (Tenopir & King,2000). Results are based on 13,591 readership survey responses from scientists, over 100 economic cost studies, tracking of 715 journals from 1960 to 1995, and review of over 800 publications. SCIENTIFIC JOURNAL SYSTEM COSTS During the 1970s King Research performed a number of studies of scientific communication under contract to the National Science Foundation (King & Roderer, 1978; King, McDonald & Roderer, i98l). One of these studies involved a systems analysis of the scientific scholar"ly journal system, including the identification and characterization of all principal functions and related activities performed in the journal system. It also involved an analysis of participants who performed the functions, including scientists as authors, referees and readers; publishers; and libraries and othel intermediary organizations. For each of the hundreds of activities, we esrablished quantities of output and the amount of resources required to perform the activities where resources included peoples' time, equipment, facilities, paper, and so on. We determined a dollar amount fbr the resources applied across the system and found that the overall system costs summed to $4.7 billion in lgjj (or about $16.4 billion in current dollars considering increases in costs). This $16.4 billion rranslares into about $5,900 per scientisr, or $65 per reading of articles. In 1998 the total system costs are estimated to be about $45 billion. Of the $45 billion, about 87 percent is attributable to scientists'time authoring, obtaining articles and reading them. Publishing costs account for seven percent of total costs and libraries and other intermediary services contribute io six percent of the costs. It is noted that the $45 billion includes the sum of all resources applied by the participants such as peoples'time, equipment, facilities, and so on. It does not include exchange of money such as the price paid by libraries and scientists for subscriptions, separate copies ofarticles, etc., because the prices and costs ofresources leading to prices would represent a duplication of resource costs in the overall joulnal system. In 1998 the relative system costs came to $7,200 per scientist and about $60 per reading. The scientists'cost per reading increased some from 1911 to 1998 because they spend more time obtaining articles and reading them. The cost of obtaining articles has gone up some because much more reading is from library-provided journals than in the past. In fact, the proportion ofreadings from this source in 1971 was 15 percent, but has gone to 55 percent in recent years because scientists have reduced personal subscriptions from 5.8 to 2.7 personal subscriptions per scientist. Average reading costs have increased because the time spent per feading has increased from 45 minutes per articie read to 52 minutes. This is due in part to an increase in size of articles. On the other hand, library resource costs pef reading are down somewhat because of better services and there is more reading per journal subscribed (keeping in mind that price is not included in library resources applied). Publishing cost per reading is down because there is more reading per article now than in 1911 . However, the