Building the Silk Road Economic Belt: Challenges in Central Asia

Central Asia occupies the centrepiece of China’s Silk Road Economic Belt (SREB) initiative. Yet, reviving the Silk Road in Central Asia will not be easy and the geopolitical challenges will be the biggest hurdle to building the SREB in the region. The idea of Central Asia as a regional grouping in political and security terms is almost non-existent and Central Asian countries remain widely divided with serious internal conflicts caused by unresolved boundary, water and energy disputes, regional rivalry, deep mistrust and differences in political, diplomatic and security policies. Also, there is an on-going big power game in Central Asia. In recent years, while better trade and investment ties with all five Central Asian countries boosted China’s economic influence in Central Asia, China is still far from being a dominant force in Central Asian affairs because of the influence of Russia and, to a lesser extent, the United States. In the near to medium term, China still cannot compete with Russia which had a significant head start in the region. Regarding reactions towards China’s SREB, Central Asian countries seem to have mixed feelings. On the one hand, they generally welcome more Chinese investment while on the other, some express anxiety and concerns with China’s rapid expansion in the region. This is partly attributed to lack of a clear time table and detailed roadmap for constructing SREB and partly due to the complicated political and social dynamics in Central Asia. Thus, the success of the SREB will have to start with a better understanding of the political and economic dynamics in Central Asia.