The mystery of recent stratospheric temperature trends

A new data set of middle- and upper-stratospheric temperatures based on reprocessing of satellite radiances provides a view of stratospheric climate change during the period 1979–2005 that is strikingly different from that provided by earlier data sets. The new data call into question our understanding of observed stratospheric temperature trends and our ability to test simulations of the stratospheric response to emissions of greenhouse gases and ozone-depleting substances. Here we highlight the important issues raised by the new data and suggest how the climate science community can resolve them.

[1]  T. Shepherd,et al.  A Robust Mechanism for Strengthening of the Brewer–Dobson Circulation in Response to Climate Change: Critical-Layer Control of Subtropical Wave Breaking , 2011 .

[2]  Changyong Cao,et al.  Recalibration of microwave sounding unit for climate studies using simultaneous nadir overpasses , 2006 .

[3]  Kirstin Krüger,et al.  Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion: 2010, Global Ozone Research and Monitoring Project-Report No. 52 , 2011 .

[4]  Carl A. Mears,et al.  Construction of the Remote Sensing Systems V3.2 Atmospheric Temperature Records from the MSU and AMSU Microwave Sounders , 2009 .

[5]  B. Mayer,et al.  Evaluation of radiation scheme performance within chemistry climate models , 2011 .

[6]  Alain Hauchecorne,et al.  Review of ozone and temperature lidar validations performed within the framework of the Network for the Detection of Stratospheric Change. , 2004, Journal of environmental monitoring : JEM.

[7]  S. Klein,et al.  Temporal Homogenization of Monthly Radiosonde Temperature Data. Part II: Trends, Sensitivities, and MSU Comparison. , 2003 .

[8]  Thomas C. Peterson,et al.  Reference Upper-Air Observations for Climate: Rationale, Progress, and Plans , 2009 .

[9]  J. Nash Extension of explicit radiance observations by the Stratospheric Sounding Unit into the lower stratosphere and lower mesosphere , 1988 .

[10]  T. Deshler A review of global stratospheric aerosol: Measurements, importance, life cycle, and local stratospheric aerosol , 2008 .

[11]  V. Ramaswamy,et al.  Stratospheric temperature trends: Observations and model simulations , 2001 .

[12]  S. Solomon,et al.  Uncertainties in the evolution of stratospheric ozone and implications for recent temperature changes in the tropical lower stratosphere , 2012 .

[13]  S. Solomon,et al.  Recent Stratospheric Climate Trends as Evidenced in Radiosonde Data: Global Structure and Tropospheric Linkages , 2005 .

[14]  John J. Barnett,et al.  Temperature trends derived from Stratospheric Sounding Unit radiances: The effect of increasing CO2 on the weighting function , 2008 .

[15]  Patrick Minnis,et al.  Forcings and chaos in interannual to decadal climate change , 1997 .

[16]  John R. Christy,et al.  Error Estimates of Version 5.0 of MSU–AMSU Bulk Atmospheric Temperatures , 2003 .

[17]  A. J. Miller,et al.  An update of observed stratospheric temperature trends , 2009 .

[18]  A. Thompson,et al.  Interannual variability and trends in tropical ozone derived from SAGE II satellite data and SHADOZ ozonesondes , 2011 .

[19]  M. Dameris,et al.  Dynamically Forced Increase of Tropical Upwelling in the Lower Stratosphere , 2011 .

[20]  Stefano Schiavon,et al.  Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. , 2007 .

[21]  John R. Lanzante,et al.  Stratospheric temperature trends: our evolving understanding , 2011 .

[22]  D. Waugh,et al.  Chemistry-climate model simulations of recent trends in lower stratospheric temperature and stratospheric residual circulation , 2012 .

[23]  R. Garcia,et al.  Acceleration of the Brewer–Dobson Circulation due to Increases in Greenhouse Gases , 2008 .

[24]  Volker Grewe,et al.  A comparison of model‐simulated trends in stratospheric temperatures , 2003 .

[25]  Veronika Eyring,et al.  SPARC Report on the Evaluation of Chemistry-Climate Models , 2010 .

[26]  Thomas C. Peterson,et al.  Radiosonde Atmospheric Temperature Products for Assessing Climate (RATPAC): A new data set of large‐area anomaly time series , 2005 .

[27]  Haifeng Qian,et al.  Construction of Stratospheric Temperature Data Records from Stratospheric Sounding Units , 2012 .

[28]  Corinne Le Quéré,et al.  Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis , 2013 .

[29]  J. Lamarque,et al.  Changes in Stratospheric Temperatures and Their Implications for Changes in the Brewer-Dobson Circulation, 1979-2005 , 2012 .

[30]  T. Shepherd,et al.  Simulated Anthropogenic Changes in the Brewer–Dobson Circulation, Including Its Extension to High Latitudes , 2009 .

[31]  J. Nash,et al.  Long-term monitoring of stratospheric temperature trends using radiance measurements obtained by the TIROS-N series of NOAA spacecraft , 1986 .

[32]  Adam A. Scaife,et al.  Simulations of anthropogenic change in the strength of the Brewer–Dobson circulation , 2006 .

[33]  M. Saier,et al.  Climate Change, 2007 , 2007 .

[34]  Veronika Eyring,et al.  Chemistry-Climate Model Simulations of Twenty- First Century Stratospheric Climate and Circulation Changes , 2010 .