Comparison of exposure in pedestrian crash analyses: A study based on zonal origin-destination survey data

Abstract In recent years, the importance of exposure for pedestrian crash analysis has received increasing attention. Unlike the case of motor vehicle crashes, the definition of exposure for pedestrian crash analysis is sometimes vague and the mechanism behind the association between exposure and pedestrian crash is often ambiguously defined. In this study, the number of roads crossed and walking distance is estimated using an integrated trip assignment method at the aggregate level. The number of walking trips are also considered and compared with the distance travelled and road crossing based exposure using joint probability models. Results show that models using the road crossing based exposure approach provides the best model fit. It is found that the number of roads crossed is the most sensitive to vehicle-pedestrian collisions, as it is more strongly correlated to potential vehicle-pedestrian interactions. The results also indicate that the sensitivity of number of road crossed could vary with road types, and road safety measures for pedestrian protection should be widely implemented on low-grade roads.

[1]  Chengcheng Xu,et al.  Modeling faults among e-bike-related fatal crashes in China , 2017, Traffic injury prevention.

[2]  Chengcheng Xu,et al.  Incorporating twitter-based human activity information in spatial analysis of crashes in urban areas. , 2017, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[3]  Patrick Morency,et al.  Multimodal injury risk analysis of road users at signalized and non-signalized intersections. , 2014, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[4]  Shenjun Yao,et al.  Towards exposure-based time-space pedestrian crash analysis in facing the challenges of ageing societies in Asia , 2013 .

[5]  Dohyung Kim,et al.  The transportation safety of elderly pedestrians: Modeling contributing factors to elderly pedestrian collisions. , 2019, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[6]  D. Alex Quistberg,et al.  Multilevel models for evaluating the risk of pedestrian-motor vehicle collisions at intersections and mid-blocks. , 2015, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[7]  M. Abdel-Aty,et al.  Is the safety-in-numbers effect still observed in areas with low pedestrian activities? A case study of a suburban area in the United States. , 2019, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[8]  Xin Pei,et al.  The roles of exposure and speed in road safety analysis. , 2012, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[9]  Patrick Morency,et al.  The link between built environment, pedestrian activity and pedestrian-vehicle collision occurrence at signalized intersections. , 2011, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[10]  Xuesong Wang,et al.  Investigation of road network features and safety performance. , 2013, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[11]  Mohamed Abdel-Aty,et al.  Geographical unit based analysis in the context of transportation safety planning , 2013 .

[12]  Mohamed Abdel-Aty,et al.  Intersection crash prediction modeling with macro-level data from various geographic units. , 2017, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[13]  B. Mallick,et al.  Bayesian multivariate spatial models for roadway traffic crash mapping , 2006 .

[14]  Srinivas S Pulugurtha,et al.  Pedestrian crash estimation models for signalized intersections. , 2011, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[15]  A. Cameron,et al.  Regression-based tests for overdispersion in the Poisson model☆ , 1990 .

[16]  Mohamed Abdel-Aty,et al.  Macroscopic spatial analysis of pedestrian and bicycle crashes. , 2012, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[17]  Wolfgang Leininger,et al.  On price characterization and pareto-efficiency of game equilibrium growth , 1986 .

[18]  M. Quddus.  Modelling area-wide count outcomes with spatial correlation and heterogeneity: an analysis of London crash data. , 2008, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[19]  Lu Bai,et al.  Exposure to pedestrian crash based on household survey data: Effect of trip purpose. , 2019, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[20]  Jie Wang,et al.  The effect of zonal factors in estimating crash risks by transportation modes: Motor vehicle, bicycle and pedestrian. , 2017, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[21]  Mohamed Abdel-Aty,et al.  Comprehensive analysis of vehicle-pedestrian crashes at intersections in Florida. , 2005, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[22]  Stephen J Mooney,et al.  Use of Google Street View to Assess Environmental Contributions to Pedestrian Injury. , 2016, American journal of public health.

[23]  Max Bushell,et al.  Pedestrian crash trends and potential countermeasures from around the world. , 2012, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[24]  P. Palamara,et al.  An investigation of pedestrian crashes at traffic intersections in the Perth central business district 2008-2012 , 2013 .

[25]  Norman W Garrick,et al.  Does street network design affect traffic safety? , 2011, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[26]  Xin Pei,et al.  A joint-probability approach to crash prediction models. , 2011, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[27]  D. Chimba,et al.  Associating pedestrian crashes with demographic and socioeconomic factors , 2018 .

[28]  Shenjun Yao,et al.  Pedestrian exposure measures: A time-space framework , 2014 .

[29]  Helai Huang,et al.  County-Level Crash Risk Analysis in Florida: Bayesian Spatial Modeling , 2010 .

[30]  Rune Elvik,et al.  Safety-in-numbers: A systematic review and meta-analysis of evidence , 2017 .

[31]  D. Graham,et al.  Spatial Variation in Road Pedestrian Casualties: The Role of Urban Scale, Density and Land-use Mix , 2003 .

[32]  Shenjun Yao,et al.  Measures of activity-based pedestrian exposure to the risk of vehicle-pedestrian collisions: space-time path vs. potential path tree methods. , 2015, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[33]  Tarek Sayed,et al.  Evaluating the impact of connectivity, continuity, and topography of sidewalk network on pedestrian safety. , 2017, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[34]  J. Hilbe.  Negative Binomial Regression: Preface , 2007 .

[35]  Yanyong Guo,et al.  Exploring unobserved heterogeneity in bicyclists' red-light running behaviors at different crossing facilities. , 2018, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[36]  Rajiv Bhatia,et al.  An area-level model of vehicle-pedestrian injury collisions with implications for land use and transportation planning. , 2009, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[37]  Eleonora Papadimitriou,et al.  Towards an integrated approach of pedestrian behaviour and exposure. , 2016, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[38]  M D Keall,et al.  Pedestrian exposure to risk of road accident in New Zealand. , 1995, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[39]  Mohamed Abdel-Aty,et al.  Evaluation of surrogate measures for pedestrian trips at intersections and crash modeling. , 2019, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[40]  Pengpeng Xu,et al.  Bayesian approach to model pedestrian crashes at signalized intersections with measurement errors in exposure. , 2018, Accident; analysis and prevention.