PORTFOLIO OPTIMIZATION IN AFFINE MODELS WITH MARKOV SWITCHING

We consider a stochastic-factor financial model wherein the asset price and the stochastic-factor processes depend on an observable Markov chain and exhibit an affine structure. We are faced with a finite investment horizon and derive optimal dynamic investment strategies that maximize the investor's expected utility from terminal wealth. To this end we apply Merton's approach, because we are dealing with an incomplete market. Based on the semimartingale characterization of Markov chains, we first derive the Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman (HJB) equations that, in our case, correspond to a system of coupled nonlinear partial differential equations (PDE). Exploiting the affine structure of the model, we derive simple expressions for the solution in the case with no leverage, i.e. no correlation between the Brownian motions driving the asset price and the stochastic factor. In the presence of leverage, we propose a separable ansatz that leads to explicit solutions. General verification results are also proved. The results are illustrated for the special case of a Markov-modulated Heston model.

[1]  J. Muhle‐Karbe,et al.  UTILITY MAXIMIZATION IN AFFINE STOCHASTIC VOLATILITY MODELS , 2010 .

[2]  Robert J. Elliott,et al.  Pricing Volatility Swaps Under Heston's Stochastic Volatility Model with Regime Switching , 2007 .

[3]  R. Sircar,et al.  A regime-switching Heston model for VIX and S&P 500 implied volatilities , 2013 .

[4]  Luis M. Viceira,et al.  Consumption and Portfolio Decisions When Expected Returns are Time Varying , 1996 .

[5]  A. Shiryaev,et al.  Limit Theorems for Stochastic Processes , 1987 .

[6]  Thaleia Zariphopoulou,et al.  A solution approach to valuation with unhedgeable risks , 2001, Finance Stochastics.

[7]  W. Fei Optimal consumption and portfolio under inflation and Markovian switching , 2013 .

[8]  S. Eddy Hidden Markov models. , 1996, Current opinion in structural biology.

[9]  Ruihua Liu Optimal Investment and Consumption with Proportional Transaction Costs in Regime-Switching Model , 2014, J. Optim. Theory Appl..

[10]  R. C. Merton,et al.  Lifetime Portfolio Selection under Uncertainty: The Continuous-Time Case , 1969 .

[11]  G. Durham,et al.  Beyond Stochastic Volatility and Jumps in Returns and Volatility , 2013 .

[12]  J. A. Casteren Feynman-Kac Formulas, Backward Stochastic Differential Equations and Markov Processes , 2007 .

[13]  Jessica A. Wachter Portfolio and Consumption Decisions under Mean-Reverting Returns: An Exact Solution for Complete Markets , 2001, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis.

[14]  S. Heston A Closed-Form Solution for Options with Stochastic Volatility with Applications to Bond and Currency Options , 1993 .

[15]  W. Magnus On the exponential solution of differential equations for a linear operator , 1954 .

[16]  R. Bellman Dynamic programming. , 1957, Science.

[17]  RÜDIGER FREY,et al.  PORTFOLIO OPTIMIZATION UNDER PARTIAL INFORMATION WITH EXPERT OPINIONS , 2012 .

[18]  E. Stein,et al.  Stock Price Distributions with Stochastic Volatility: An Analytic Approach , 1991 .

[19]  Sovan Mitra Regime switching stochastic volatility option pricing , 2010 .

[20]  MEAN–VARIANCE HEDGING AND OPTIMAL INVESTMENT IN HESTON'S MODEL WITH CORRELATION , 2008 .

[21]  A. Elices,et al.  Models with time-dependent parameters using transform methods: application to Heston's model , 2007, 0708.2020.

[22]  James D. Hamilton A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle , 1989 .

[23]  M. Schweizer,et al.  Classical solutions to reaction-diffusion systems for hedging problems with interacting Ito and point processes , 2005, math/0505208.

[24]  Qing Zhang,et al.  Continuous-Time Markov Chains and Applications , 1998 .

[25]  J. Muhle‐Karbe,et al.  Exponentially affine martingales, affine measure changes and exponential moments of affine processes , 2010 .

[26]  R. Liu A Finite-Horizon Optimal Investment And Consumption Problem Using Regime-Switching Models , 2014 .

[27]  R. C. Merton,et al.  Optimum Consumption and Portfolio Rules in a Continuous-Time Model* , 1975 .

[28]  Rudi Zagst,et al.  Asset Correlations in Turbulent Markets and the Impact of Different Regimes on Asset Management , 2011, Asia Pac. J. Oper. Res..

[29]  J. Wooldridge,et al.  A Capital Asset Pricing Model with Time-Varying Covariances , 1988, Journal of Political Economy.

[30]  Nicole Bäuerle,et al.  Portfolio optimization with Markov-modulated stock prices and interest rates , 2004, IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control.

[31]  M. Rubinstein. Nonparametric tests of alternative option pricing models using all reported trades and quotes on the , 1985 .

[32]  Abel Cadenillas,et al.  EXPLICIT SOLUTIONS OF CONSUMPTION‐INVESTMENT PROBLEMS IN FINANCIAL MARKETS WITH REGIME SWITCHING , 2009 .

[33]  Andrew J. Patton,et al.  What good is a volatility model? , 2001 .

[34]  Simon Brendle,et al.  Portfolio selection under incomplete information , 2006 .

[35]  H. Kraft Optimal portfolios and Heston's stochastic volatility model: an explicit solution for power utility , 2005 .

[36]  Robert B. Litterman,et al.  Global Portfolio Optimization , 1992 .

[37]  B. Øksendal Stochastic Differential Equations , 1985 .

[38]  Ts Kim,et al.  Dynamic Nonmyopic Portfolio Behavior , 1994 .

[39]  Eduardo S. Schwartz,et al.  The Role of Learning in Dynamic Portfolio Decisions ? , 1998 .