Segregation between GM and non-GM Inputs in EU Feed and Food Supply Chains: Future Scenarios

The European Union is a large importer of genetically modified (GM) soybean and soybean products, mainly used in the livestock sector (e.g., Tillie & RodríguezCerezo, 2015). When dealing with the segregation between GM and non-GM inputs in the EU feed and food supply chains, several issues are at stake—the interests of many stakeholder groups, the economic risk due to the adventitious presence of authorized GM materials above the legal threshold, the zero-tolerance policy for unapproved GM events, the asynchronous approval process among the EU and third countries, different sources of uncertainties (e.g., inputs availability, premium price, quality standards), and the decisions to be taken either at firm or government level. Looking ahead, the future of GMOs in the European Union is not clear. At present, it is a sensitive political issue, as confirmed by the high-pitched debate around the latest moves of the European Commission (see European Commission, 2015a, 2015b) and the on-going negotiations for the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP). Changes in social, technological, economic, environmental, or political factors can have relevant implications on the future economic sustainability and governance of the EU feed and food supply chains, as well as on the markets of certified non-GM food products (Passuello, Boccaletti, & Soregaroli, 2015). Likely, the business context that feed/food supply chain actors will face in the future will be significantly different from the present one. The heterogeneous position of the EU Member States (MS) towards the cultivation of GM crops and the use of GM inputs in feed and food manufacturing could create different situations within the European Union. A set of alternative future scenarios should therefore be considered by stakeholders and policymakers as part of their strategic decisionmaking process. The purpose of this study is threefold: 1) to determine and validate the key driving forces influencing future scenarios for the segregation between GM and non-GM inputs in EU feed and food supply chains; 2) to sketch alternative plausible scenarios; 3) to discuss potential implications of such scenarios for supply chain actors. Accordingly, we use a participatory scenario development approach—more precisely a two-day exploratory expert-based workshop—to draw, building on intuitive logic and experts’ judgment/assessment, plausible alternative futures for GMOs segregation in Europe and investigate risks and opportunities for the main actors along the feed/food supply chains. Our ambition is to offer a framework where academics, professionals, and officials working in EU institutions Stefano Boccaletti Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore