A fuzzy decision making approach for analogy detection in new product forecasting

New product forecasting is a challenging area of research, because unlike other forecasting disciplines, where the presence of historical data makes it possible to apply several analysis tools and techniques, new products suffer from scarcity of data to perform conventional analysis. Usually, the data analysis on analogical products is the only solution left and is in practice for so many decades. However, to find a reasonable analogical counterpart for a new product is challenging. In this paper, we propose a methodology based on Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy process (henceforth Fuzzy AHP) and Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (henceforth TOPSIS) to identify an analogical product for a given new product or an innovation. We further demonstrate the applicability of the method by taking a real life example of four consumer durable products in India.

[1]  Chen-Tung Chen,et al.  Extensions of the TOPSIS for group decision-making under fuzzy environment , 2000, Fuzzy Sets Syst..

[2]  Robert J. Thomas,et al.  Estimating Market Growth for New Products: An Analogical Diffusion Model Approach , 1985 .

[3]  T. Saaty,et al.  The Analytic Hierarchy Process , 1985 .

[4]  Sheng-Tun Li,et al.  Power planning in ICT infrastructure: A multi-criteria operational performance evaluation approach , 2014 .

[5]  Xiaodong Liu,et al.  Supplier selection using axiomatic fuzzy set and TOPSIS methodology in supply chain management , 2012, Fuzzy Optim. Decis. Mak..

[6]  V. Mahajan,et al.  Innovation diffusion and new product growth models: A critical review and research directions , 2010 .

[7]  David L. Olson,et al.  Comparison of weights in TOPSIS models , 2004, Math. Comput. Model..

[8]  Kevin D. Reilly,et al.  Simulating continuous fuzzy systems , 2005, Inf. Sci..

[9]  George Athanasopoulos,et al.  Forecasting: principles and practice , 2013 .

[10]  J. Scott Armstrong,et al.  Structured Analogies for Forecasting , 2007 .

[11]  Vijay Mahajan,et al.  New product forecasting models. Directions for research and implementation , 1988 .

[12]  F. Bass.  A new product growth model for consumer durables , 1976 .

[13]  Hepu Deng,et al.  Multicriteria analysis with fuzzy pairwise comparison , 1999, FUZZ-IEEE'99. 1999 IEEE International Fuzzy Systems. Conference Proceedings (Cat. No.99CH36315).

[14]  E. Rogers.  Diffusion of Innovations , 1962 .

[15]  S. Vinodh,et al.  Integrated Fuzzy AHP–TOPSIS for selecting the best plastic recycling method: A case study , 2014 .

[16]  Bojan Srdjevic,et al.  Fuzzy AHP Assessment of Water Management Plans , 2008 .

[17]  Lotfi A. Zadeh,et al.  Fuzzy Sets , 1996, Inf. Control..

[18]  Pin-Yu Chu,et al.  A fuzzy AHP application in government-sponsored R&D project selection☆ , 2008 .

[19]  Gilberto Montibeller,et al.  Supporting the allocation of software development work in distributed teams with multi-criteria decision analysis , 2008 .

[20]  She-I Chang,et al.  An ERP system performance assessment model development based on the balanced scorecard approach , 2011, Inf. Syst. Frontiers.

[21]  Beyza Ahlatçioglu Ozkok,et al.  Fuzzy portfolio selection using fuzzy analytic hierarchy process , 2009, Inf. Sci..

[22]  Ching-Lai Hwang,et al.  Fuzzy Multiple Attribute Decision Making - Methods and Applications , 1992, Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems.

[23]  Frank M. Bass,et al.  Comments on "A New Product Growth for Model Consumer Durables The Bass Model" , 2004, Manag. Sci..

[24]  W. Pedrycz,et al.  A fuzzy extension of Saaty's priority theory , 1983 .

[25]  Thomas L. Saaty,et al.  Decision making for leaders , 1985, IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics.

[26]  Kamran Rezaie,et al.  Evaluating performance of Iranian cement firms using an integrated fuzzy AHP–VIKOR method , 2014 .

[27]  Kemal Vatansever,et al.  Fuzzy Performance Evaluation with AHP and Topsis Methods: Evidence from Turkish Banking Sector after the Global Financial Crisis , 2013 .

[28]  Kenneth B. Kahn.  New Product Forecasting : An Applied Approach , 2014 .

[29]  Thomas Neubauer,et al.  Interactive selection of Web services under multiple objectives , 2010, Inf. Technol. Manag..

[30]  C. Easingwood,et al.  An analogical approach to the long term forecasting of major new product sales , 1989 .

[31]  Anjali Awasthi,et al.  A hybrid approach integrating Affinity Diagram, AHP and fuzzy TOPSIS for sustainable city logistics planning , 2012 .

[32]  Vikas Kapoor,et al.  Fuzzy Application to the Analytic Hierarchy Process for Robot Selection , 2005, Fuzzy Optim. Decis. Mak..

[33]  Hsiu-Fen Lin,et al.  An application of fuzzy AHP for evaluating course website quality , 2010, Comput. Educ..

[34]  Ching-Lai Hwang,et al.  Multiple Attribute Decision Making: Methods and Applications - A State-of-the-Art Survey , 1981, Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems.

[35]  J. Buckley.  Ranking alternatives using fuzzy numbers , 1985 .