Forecasting the Effects of an Aging Population on Product Consumption: An Age-Period-Cohort Framework

A method of forecasting the effects of changing age distributions and cohort succession on product consumption is presented. Cohort analysis is used to estimate the effects of age, period, and cohort membership on consumption. Recent developments in cohort analysis are reviewed and a study of coffee consumption reported. The forecasts differ from traditional cross-sectional forecasts and in some cases predict changes opposite in directionality. The cohort forecasts are shown to be more accurate than cross-sectional forecasts in the coffee study. The method is not limited to forecasting product consumption, but can be used in forecasting other behaviors, attitudes, and opinions.

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