FORECASTING DIAL-A-BUS RIDERSHIP IN SMALL URBAN AREAS

A method is developed for estimating potential demand for innovative transit services such as dial-a-bus and park-and-ride in small urban areas and suburban communities currently lacking such services. The method assumes that the rate of usage of a particular type of service is similar for particular population groupings, regardless of their geographical location. The rate of usage is presumed to depend on factors such as age, sex, and service attributes rather than characteristics of the community under consideration. The procedure is applied in the analysis of demand for dial-a-bus service in Oneonta, New York, by using the existing system in Batavia, New York, as the base for determining actual rates of response to such a service. Results indicate that the method gives reasonable estimates of demand and demand sensitivity to policy variables such as fare and gasoline price.