° 30 ° 32 ° 34 ° 36 ° 38 ° 40 ° 42 ° 44 ° 46 ° 48 ° 50 ° 26 ° 24 °

Kyle G. Horton,* Benjamin M. Van Doren, Frank A. La Sorte, Daniel Fink, Daniel Sheldon, Andrew Farnsworth and Jeffrey F. Kelly Abstract The migratory patterns of birds have been the focus of ecologists for millennia. What behavioural traits underlie these remarkably consistent movements? Addressing this question is central to advancing our understanding of migratory flight strategies and requires the integration of information across levels of biological organisation, e.g. species to communities. Here, we combine species-specific observations from the eBird citizen-science database with observations aggregated from weather surveillance radars during spring migration in central North America. Our results confirm a core prediction of migration theory at an unprecedented national scale: body mass predicts variation in flight strategies across latitudes, with larger-bodied species flying faster and compensating more for wind drift. We also find evidence that migrants travelling northward earlier in the spring increasingly compensate for wind drift at higher latitudes. This integration of information across biological scales provides new insight into patterns and determinants of broad-scale flight strategies of migratory birds.

[1]  Pierre Alquier,et al.  Approximate Bayesian Inference , 2020, Entropy.

[2]  J. Kelly,et al.  Toward integrating citizen science and radar data for migrant bird conservation , 2018 .

[3]  Bird Migration: Life on the High Seas , 2018, Current Biology.

[4]  W. Vansteelant,et al.  Wind conditions and geography shape the first outbound migration of juvenile honey buzzards and their distribution across sub-Saharan Africa , 2017, Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences.

[5]  Willem Bouten,et al.  Seasonal detours by soaring migrants shaped by wind regimes along the East Atlantic Flyway , 2017, The Journal of animal ecology.

[6]  D. Fink,et al.  Projected changes in prevailing winds for transatlantic migratory birds under global warming , 2017, The Journal of animal ecology.

[7]  D. Fink,et al.  Migration distance, ecological barriers and en‐route variation in the migratory behaviour of terrestrial bird populations , 2017 .

[8]  Phillip M. Stepanian,et al.  Where in the air? Aerial habitat use of nocturnally migrating birds , 2016, Biology Letters.

[9]  Phillip M. Stepanian,et al.  Dual‐polarization radar products for biological applications , 2016 .

[10]  S. Åkesson,et al.  Negotiating an ecological barrier: crossing the Sahara in relation to winds by common swifts , 2016, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences.

[11]  J. Kelly,et al.  Seasonal differences in landbird migration strategies , 2016, The Auk.

[12]  D. O. Hessen,et al.  Global change and ecosystem connectivity: How geese link fields of central Europe to eutrophication of Arctic freshwaters , 2016, Ambio.

[13]  Jeffrey F. Kelly,et al.  Toward a predictive macrosystems framework for migration ecology , 2016 .

[14]  Steve Kelling,et al.  A characterization of autumn nocturnal migration detected by weather surveillance radars in the northeastern USA. , 2016, Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America.

[15]  Phillip M. Stepanian,et al.  Nocturnally migrating songbirds drift when they can and compensate when they must , 2016, Scientific Reports.

[16]  K. Horton,et al.  The role of the US Great Plains low-level jet in nocturnal migrant behavior , 2016, International Journal of Biometeorology.

[17]  Steve Kelling,et al.  Convergence of broad-scale migration strategies in terrestrial birds , 2016, Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences.

[18]  J. Blas,et al.  Data from: Costs of migratory decisions: a comparison across eight white stork populations , 2015 .

[19]  K. Horton,et al.  Wind drift explains the reoriented morning flights of songbirds , 2016 .

[20]  T. Alerstam,et al.  Adaptive strategies in nocturnally migrating insects and songbirds: contrasting responses to wind. , 2016, The Journal of animal ecology.

[21]  B Kranstauber,et al.  Global aerial flyways allow efficient travelling. , 2015, Ecology letters.

[22]  Bart Kranstauber,et al.  True navigation in migrating gulls requires intact olfactory nerves , 2015, Scientific Reports.

[23]  Jaclyn A. Smolinsky,et al.  Fat, weather, and date affect migratory songbirds’ departure decisions, routes, and time it takes to cross the Gulf of Mexico , 2015, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[24]  Steve Kelling,et al.  Migration timing and its determinants for nocturnal migratory birds during autumn migration. , 2015, The Journal of animal ecology.

[25]  D. Way,et al.  Photoperiod constraints on tree phenology, performance and migration in a warming world. , 2015, Plant, cell & environment.

[26]  Steve Kelling,et al.  Seasonal changes in the altitudinal distribution of nocturnally migrating birds during autumn migration , 2015, Royal Society Open Science.

[27]  Phillip M. Stepanian,et al.  Extracting Migrant Flight Orientation Profiles Using Polarimetric Radar , 2015, IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing.

[28]  S. Åkesson,et al.  Weather and fuel reserves determine departure and flight decisions in passerines migrating across the Baltic Sea , 2015, Animal Behaviour.

[29]  K. Horton,et al.  A comparison of traffic estimates of nocturnal flying animals using radar, thermal imaging, and acoustic recording. , 2015, Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America.

[30]  Kenneth Wilson,et al.  Long-range seasonal migration in insects: mechanisms, evolutionary drivers and ecological consequences. , 2015, Ecology letters.

[31]  David Schimel,et al.  Big questions, big science: meeting the challenges of global ecology , 2015, Oecologia.

[32]  J. Blas,et al.  Individual improvements and selective mortality shape lifelong migratory performance , 2014, Nature.

[33]  D. Fink,et al.  Spring phenology of ecological productivity contributes to the use of looped migration strategies by birds , 2014, Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences.

[34]  Steve Kelling,et al.  The role of atmospheric conditions in the seasonal dynamics of North American migration flyways , 2014 .

[35]  D. Bates,et al.  Fitting Linear Mixed-Effects Models Using lme4 , 2014, 1406.5823.

[36]  S. Bauer,et al.  Migratory Animals Couple Biodiversity and Ecosystem Functioning Worldwide , 2014, Science.

[37]  Thomas G. Dietterich,et al.  The eBird enterprise: An integrated approach to development and application of citizen science , 2014 .

[38]  R Core Team,et al.  R: A language and environment for statistical computing. , 2014 .

[39]  Steve Kelling,et al.  Population-level scaling of avian migration speed with body size and migration distance for powered fliers. , 2013, Ecology.

[40]  Thomas G. Dietterich,et al.  Approximate Bayesian Inference for Reconstructing Velocities of Migrating Birds from Weather Radar , 2013, AAAI.

[41]  D. Legrand,et al.  Individual dispersal, landscape connectivity and ecological networks , 2013, Biological reviews of the Cambridge Philosophical Society.

[42]  C. Peña-Ortiz,et al.  Observed trends in the global jet stream characteristics during the second half of the 20th century , 2013 .

[43]  A. Budden,et al.  Big data and the future of ecology , 2013 .

[44]  Yimin Liu,et al.  Intensification of Northern Hemisphere subtropical highs in a warming climate , 2012 .

[45]  T. Katzner,et al.  Flight responses by a migratory soaring raptor to changing meteorological conditions , 2012, Biology Letters.

[46]  Willem Bouten,et al.  Quantifying flow-assistance and implications for movement research. , 2012, Journal of theoretical biology.

[47]  Nicolas Schtickzelle,et al.  Costs of dispersal , 2012, Biological reviews of the Cambridge Philosophical Society.

[48]  S. Vavrus,et al.  Evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in mid‐latitudes , 2012 .

[49]  Allen H. Hurlbert,et al.  Spatiotemporal Variation in Avian Migration Phenology: Citizen Science Reveals Effects of Climate Change , 2012, PloS one.

[50]  Steve Kelling,et al.  Data-intensive science applied to broad-scale citizen science. , 2012, Trends in ecology & evolution.

[51]  V. Alistair Drake,et al.  Animal Orientation Strategies for Movement in Flows , 2011, Current Biology.

[52]  Christopher A. Barnes,et al.  Completion of the 2006 National Land Cover Database for the conterminous United States. , 2011 .

[53]  Roine Strandberg,et al.  Geographical and temporal flexibility in the response to crosswinds by migrating raptors , 2011, Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences.

[54]  D. Fink,et al.  Spatiotemporal exploratory models for broad-scale survey data. , 2010, Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America.

[55]  Felix Liechti,et al.  Bird migration flight altitudes studied by a network of operational weather radars , 2010, Journal of The Royal Society Interface.

[56]  J. Silvertown A new dawn for citizen science. , 2009, Trends in ecology & evolution.

[57]  P. R. Evans Migration and orientation of passerine night migrants in northeast England , 2009 .

[58]  Jeffrey J. Buler,et al.  Quantifying Bird Density During Migratory Stopover Using Weather Surveillance Radar , 2009, IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing.

[59]  K. Cook,et al.  Springtime Intensification of the Great Plains Low-Level Jet and Midwest Precipitation in GCM Simulations of the Twenty-First Century , 2008 .

[60]  Gregory D. Bierly,et al.  A Long-Term Climatology of Southerly and Northerly Low-Level Jets for the Central United States , 2008 .

[61]  William F. Fagan,et al.  Search and navigation in dynamic environments – from individual behaviors to population distributions , 2008 .

[62]  Colin J Pennycuick,et al.  THE MECHANICS OF BIRD MIGRATION , 2008 .

[63]  C. L. Archer,et al.  Historical trends in the jet streams , 2008 .

[64]  Anders Hedenström,et al.  Adaptations to migration in birds: behavioural strategies, morphology and scaling effects , 2008, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences.

[65]  I. Newton The Migration Ecology of Birds , 2007 .

[66]  J. Dunning,et al.  CRC Handbook of Avian Body Masses , 2007 .

[67]  Thomas Alerstam,et al.  Flight Speeds among Bird Species: Allometric and Phylogenetic Effects , 2007, PLoS biology.

[68]  Willem Bouten,et al.  Pareto front analysis of flight time and energy use in long-distance bird migration , 2007 .

[69]  Felix Liechti,et al.  Birds: blowin’ by the wind? , 2006, Journal of Ornithology.

[70]  David D. Parrish,et al.  NORTH AMERICAN REGIONAL REANALYSIS , 2006 .

[71]  Bruno Bruderer,et al.  The role of wind in passerine autumn migration between Europe and Africa , 2005 .

[72]  Ronald P. Larkin,et al.  Flight speeds observed with radar, a correction: slow “birds” are insects , 1991, Behavioral Ecology and Sociobiology.

[73]  Bruno Bruderer,et al.  How does a first year passerine migrant find its way? Simulating migration mechanisms and behavioural adaptations , 2003 .

[74]  T. Alerstam Bird Migration Speed , 2003 .

[75]  Thomas Alerstam,et al.  The problem of estimating wind drift in migrating birds. , 2002, Journal of theoretical biology.

[76]  Bruno Bruderer,et al.  Wind and rain govern the intensity of nocturnal bird migration in central Europe: A log-linear regression analysis , 2002 .

[77]  Bruno Bruderer,et al.  Nocturnal autumn bird migration at Falsterbo, South Sweden , 2001 .

[78]  J. Fridley The influence of species diversity on ecosystem productivity: how, where, and why? , 2001 .

[79]  S. Åkesson,et al.  Wind selectivity of migratory flight departures in birds , 2000, Behavioral Ecology and Sociobiology.

[80]  Anders Hedenström,et al.  THE DEVELOPMENT OF BIRD MIGRATION THEORY , 1998 .

[81]  Sidney A. Gauthreaux,et al.  Displays of Bird Movements on the WSR-88D: Patterns and Quantification* , 1998 .

[82]  Timothy D. Crum,et al.  The WSR-88D and the WSR-88D Operational Support Facility , 1993 .

[83]  W. Richardson Timing of Bird Migration in Relation to Weather: Updated Review , 1990 .

[84]  K. Nagy FIELD METABOLIC RATE AND FOOD REQUIREMENT SCALING IN MAMMALS AND BIRDS , 1987 .

[85]  Thomas Alerstam,et al.  Wind as Selective Agent in Bird Migration , 1979 .

[86]  T. Alerstam A Graphical Illustration of Pseudodrift , 1978 .

[87]  W. John Richardson,et al.  Timing and Amount of Bird Migration in Relation to Weather: A Review , 1978 .

[88]  C. S. Holling Resilience and Stability of Ecological Systems , 1973 .

[89]  K. A. Browning,et al.  The Determination of Kinematic Properties of a Wind Field Using Doppler Radar , 1968 .

[90]  W. H. Drury,et al.  Orientation of Spring Migrants Studied by Radar , 1967 .