Although treatment of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) with immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICI) can produce remarkably durable responses, most patients develop early disease progression. Furthermore, initial response assessment by conventional imaging is often unable to identify which patients will achieve durable clinical benefit (DCB). Here, we analyze 211 samples from 99 patients and demonstrate that pre-treatment circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) and circulating immune profiles are independently associated with DCB. We further show that ctDNA dynamics after a single ICI infusion can identify the majority of patients who will achieve DCB. Integrating these determinants, we describe an entirely noninvasive multi-analyte assay (DIREct-On, Durable Immunotherapy Response Estimation by immune profiling and ctDNA- On-treatment) that robustly predicted DCB, and that was validated in two independent cohorts (AUC = 0.89-0.93, PPV = 92-100%, HR = 0.04-0.11). Taken together, these results demonstrate that integrated ctDNA and circulating immune cell profiling can provide accurate, noninvasive, and early forecasting of ultimate outcomes for NSCLC patients receiving ICI. Citation Format: Barzin Y. Nabet, Mohammad S. Esfahani, Emily G. Hamilton, Jacob J. Chabon, Everett J. Moding, Hira Rizvi, Chloe B. Steen, Aadel A. Chaudhuri, Chih Long Liu, Angela B. Hui, Henning Stehr, Linda Goljenola, Michael C. Jin, Young-Jun Jeon, Diane Tseng, Taha Merghoub, Joel W. Neal, Heather A. Wakelee, Sukhmani K. Padda, Kavitha J. Ramchandran, Millie Das, Rene F. Bonilla, Christopher Yoo, Emily L. Chen, Ryan B. Ko, Aaron M. Newman, Matthew D. Hellmann, Ash A. Alizadeh, Maximilian Diehn. A noninvasive approach for early prediction of therapeutic benefit from immune checkpoint inhibition for lung cancer [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the Annual Meeting of the American Association for Cancer Research 2020; 2020 Apr 27-28 and Jun 22-24. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2020;80(16 Suppl):Abstract nr 5666.