F 1 EFFECTS OF LARGE SCALE WIND PRODUCTION ON THE NORDIC ELECTRICITY MARKET

Simulations with the power market model EMPS with weekly time resolution have been made to assess the effects of large scale wind production to the Nordic electricity market. Two base case scenarios are made, reference for the Nordic market area for years 2000 and 2010, and wind is added to these systems in 3 steps. The results for the simulations with 16...46 TWh/a wind production in Nordic countries (4...12 % of electricity consumption), show that wind power replaces mostly coal condense and oil as fuel for electric boilers. As a result of fuels replaced by wind production a CO2 reduction is achieved, of 680...620 gCO2/kWh. Indications for bottlenecks in transmission can be seen, especially to Central Europe, when the wind production is above 20 TWh/a. Average spot market price drops by roughly 0.2 eurocents per 10 TWh/a wind production added to the system. Avoided costs for wind power production are roughly 2 eurocents/kWh for today’s system and 3.1 eurocents/kWh for 2010 system with CO2 tax and reduced power surplus. Changes in socio-economic surplus for the market is 2.4...2.0 eurocents/kWh for 16...46 TWh/a wind production, i.e.15 % higher than average spot price (for 2010, 3.9 eurocents/kWh, 30 % higher than average spot price).