Track-Pattern-Based Model for Seasonal Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Activity in the Western North Pacific

AbstractSkillful predictions of the seasonal tropical cyclone (TC) activity are important in mitigating the potential destruction from the TC approach/landfall in many coastal regions. In this study, a novel approach for the prediction of the seasonal TC activity over the western North Pacific is developed to provide useful probabilistic information on the seasonal characteristics of the TC tracks and vulnerable areas. The developed model, which is termed the “track-pattern-based model,” is characterized by two features: 1) a hybrid statistical–dynamical prediction of the seasonal activity of seven track patterns obtained by fuzzy c-means clustering of historical TC tracks and 2) a technique that enables researchers to construct a forecasting map of the spatial probability of the seasonal TC track density over the entire basin. The hybrid statistical–dynamical prediction for each pattern is based on the statistical relationship between the seasonal TC frequency of the pattern and the seasonal mean key pre...

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