Evaluation of ground settlement in response to shield penetration using numerical and statistical methods: a metro tunnel construction case

Abstract Shield tunnelling can cause ground settlement, which poses significant risks to adjacent structures or facilities. To understand complex soil behaviour in response to shield penetration, a model that can establish the shield–ground relationship and accurately predict tunnelling-induced ground settlement is necessary. The aim of this paper is to combine numerical methods and statistical methods for settlement prediction in the Wuhan (China) metro project. During the pre-construction stage, due to the lack of instrumentation data, the numerical method was applied to simulate the tunnelling process. The relevant factors influencing ground settlements were identified by examining the model’s sensitivity to each parameter. After the shield launch, data of the relevant factors and field measurements were collected. Using these data, a statistical model based on an adaptive relevance vector machine (aRVM) was trained for real-time prediction of the ground settlement development. The simulation results show that a number of factors, including geometrical, geological and shield operational parameters, contribute to ground settlement, and the aRVM model can accurately and effectively predict settlement development. The example application demonstrates that the method is a practical tool for settlement prediction and can be widely used in metro projects.

[1]  Eric Leca,et al.  Settlements induced by tunneling in Soft Ground , 2007 .

[2]  Márcio Muniz de Farias,et al.  Displacement control in tunnels excavated by the NATM: 3-D numerical simulations , 2004 .

[3]  C. Callari,et al.  Tunnels in Saturated Elasto-plastic Soils: Three-dimensional Validation of a Plane Simulation Procedure , 2005 .

[4]  S. Suwansawat,et al.  Artificial neural networks for predicting the maximum surface settlement caused by EPB shield tunneling , 2006 .

[5]  S. W. Hong,et al.  Neural network based prediction of ground surface settlements due to tunnelling , 2001 .

[6]  C. Callari,et al.  Coupled numerical analysis of strain localization induced by shallow tunnels in saturated soils , 2004 .

[7]  David J. C. MacKay,et al.  The Evidence Framework Applied to Classification Networks , 1992, Neural Computation.

[8]  Mohammad Ali Lotfollahi-Yaghin,et al.  Wavenet ability assessment in comparison to ANN for predicting the maximum surface settlement caused by tunneling , 2012 .

[9]  Daniel Dias,et al.  Movements caused by the excavation of tunnels using face pressurized shields — Analysis of monitoring and numerical modeling results , 2013 .

[10]  Karmen Fifer Bizjak,et al.  Displacement analysis of tunnel support in soft rock around a shallow highway tunnel at Golovec , 2004 .

[11]  R. J. Fowell,et al.  EFFECTS OF DIFFERENT TUNNEL FACE ADVANCE EXCAVATION ON THE SETTLEMENT BY FEM , 2003 .

[12]  Shong-Loong Chen,et al.  Applicability of the principle of superposition in estimating ground surface settlement of twin- and quadruple-tube tunnels , 2012 .

[13]  B. M. New,et al.  831153 Settlement above tunnels in the United Kingdom — their magnitude and prediction : In: Tunnelling 82, Proceedings of the 3rd International Symposium, Brighton, 7–11 June 1982, P173–181. Publ London: IMM, 1982 , 1983 .

[14]  Fan Wang,et al.  Modeling tunneling-induced ground surface settlement development using a wavelet smooth relevance vector machine , 2013 .

[15]  R. Peck.  Deep excavations and tunnelling in soft ground , 1969 .

[16]  Franco Maceri,et al.  Mechanical modelling and computational issues in civil engineering , 2005 .

[17]  Richard M. Everson,et al.  Smooth relevance vector machine: a smoothness prior extension of the RVM , 2007, Machine Learning.

[18]  M. Karakus,et al.  Back analysis for tunnelling induced ground movements and stress redistribution , 2005 .

[19]  K. M. Neaupane,et al.  Prediction of tunneling-induced ground movement with the multi-layer perceptron , 2006 .

[20]  Fan Wang,et al.  Feedforward Analysis for Shield-Ground System , 2013 .

[21]  A. N. Jiang,et al.  Feedback analysis of tunnel construction using a hybrid arithmetic based on Support Vector Machine and Particle Swarm Optimisation , 2011 .

[22]  Günther Meschke,et al.  On the influence of face pressure, grouting pressure and TBM design in soft ground tunnelling , 2006 .

[23]  P. Attewell,et al.  Ground Deformations Resulting from Shield Tunnelling in London Clay , 1974 .

[24]  F. Emeriault,et al.  Stability analysis of large slurry shield-driven tunnel in soft clay , 2009 .

[25]  Michael E. Tipping.  Bayesian Inference: An Introduction to Principles and Practice in Machine Learning , 2003, Advanced Lectures on Machine Learning.

[26]  Yong Yuan,et al.  Full 3D seismic analysis of a long-distance water conveyance tunnel , 2014 .

[27]  Pijush Samui,et al.  Support vector machine applied to settlement of shallow foundations on cohesionless soils , 2008 .

[28]  G. Wayne Clough,et al.  Evaluation of Soil Response to EPB Shield Tunneling , 1985 .

[29]  O. J. Santos,et al.  Artificial neural networks analysis of São Paulo subway tunnel settlement data , 2008 .

[30]  Jingsheng Shi,et al.  MODULAR NEURAL NETWORKS FOR PREDICTING SETTLEMENTS DURING TUNNELING , 1998 .

[31]  Robert J. Mair,et al.  SUBSURFACE SETTLEMENT PROFILES ABOVE TUNNELS IN CLAYS , 1993 .

[32]  George Eastman House,et al.  Sparse Bayesian Learning and the Relevan e Ve tor Ma hine , 2001 .

[33]  Francisco Armero,et al.  Strong discontinuities in partially saturated poroplastic solids , 2010 .

[34]  B. M. New,et al.  SETTLEMENTS ABOVE TUNNELS IN THE UNITED KINGDOM - THEIR MAGNITUDE AND PREDICTION , 1982 .

[35]  Ahmad Fahimifar,et al.  A new elasto-plastic solution for analysis of underwater tunnels considering strain-dependent permeability , 2014 .

[36]  Günther Meschke,et al.  A 3D finite element simulation model for TBM tunnelling in soft ground , 2004 .

[37]  Günther Meschke,et al.  A numerical study of the effect of soil and grout material properties and cover depth in shield tunnelling , 2006 .

[38]  Shong-Loong Chen,et al.  Estimation of transverse ground surface settlement induced by DOT shield tunneling , 2013 .