Long-term survival after infection with human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) among homosexual men in hepatitis B vaccine trial cohorts in Amsterdam, New York City, and San Francisco, 1978-1995.

Information on long-term survival after infection with human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) is limited. In hepatitis B vaccine trials in Amsterdam, New York City, and San Francisco, 362 gay men were followed up to 18 years (1978-1995). The median survival time from seroconversion was 12.1 years (95% confidence interval: 11.4, 12.9). The annual risk of dying increased at a constant rate until 8 years after seroconversion and then leveled off, suggesting a group that is relatively resistant to progression. These data provide a picture of the natural history of HIV-1 infection, especially in the era prior to widespread use of highly effective treatments.

[1]  N Carré,et al.  Has the rate of progression to AIDS changed in recent years? , 1997, AIDS.

[2]  R. Raiteri,et al.  Is the clinical course of HIV-1 changing? Cohort study , 1997, BMJ.

[3]  Chia-Man Ma.  Declining AIDS mortality in New York City. New York City Department of Health. , 1997 .

[4]  C. Sabin,et al.  The incubation period of AIDS. , 1997, AIDS.

[5]  A. Muñoz,et al.  Models for the incubation of AIDS and variations according to age and period. , 1996, Statistics in medicine.

[6]  D. Vlahov,et al.  Temporal trends of initial CD4 cell counts following human immunodeficiency virus seroconversion in Italy, 1985-1992. The Human Immunodeficiency Virus Italian Seroconversion Study. , 1996, American journal of epidemiology.

[7]  J. Phair,et al.  Evaluation of secular trends in CD4+ lymphocyte loss among human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1)-infected men with known dates of seroconversion. , 1995, American journal of epidemiology.

[8]  D. Vlahov,et al.  Recent infection with human immunodeficiency virus and possible rapid loss of CD4 T lymphocytes. , 1995, Journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes and human retrovirology : official publication of the International Retrovirology Association.

[9]  D. Cooper,et al.  Determinants of HIV disease progression among homosexual men registered in the Tricontinental Seroconverter Study. , 1994, American journal of epidemiology.

[10]  S. Buchbinder,et al.  Progression of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) infection among homosexual men in hepatitis B vaccine trial cohorts in Amsterdam, New York City, and San Francisco, 1978-1991. , 1994, American journal of epidemiology.

[11]  R Bellocco,et al.  Median time from seroconversion to AIDS in Italian HIV-positive haemophiliacs: different parametric estimates. , 1994, Statistics in medicine.

[12]  S. Buchbinder,et al.  Epidemiology of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 infection among homosexual men participating in hepatitis B vaccine trials in Amsterdam, New York City, and San Francisco, 1978-1990. , 1993, American journal of epidemiology.

[13]  Graham F. Medley,et al.  The treatment‐free incubation period of AIDS in a cohort of homosexual men , 1993, AIDS.

[14]  P. Bacchetti.  Estimating the Incubation Period of AIDS by Comparing Population Infection and Diagnosis Patterns , 1990 .

[15]  Elisa T. Lee,et al.  Statistical Methods for Survival Data Analysis , 1994, IEEE Transactions on Reliability.