论文信息 - Model for R&D Planning in Energy Sector

Model for R&D Planning in Energy Sector

Optimal allocation of resources for R&D on new energy technologies is an important issue in the process of development of energy system models. In this study, a model of R&D planning in energy sector has been developed and it is then linked to the energy system model. Energy system model is used as a tool for the technology assessment and prioritization of new energy technologies is evaluated with the help of this model. Based on the economic and environmental impact of new technologies, the optimal allocation of resources for R&D of new technology is estimated with the help of the R&D planning model. The conceptual formulation of the model and its integration with the energy technology assessment model will be described and the basic methodology of the model shall be outlined. Thereafter, the application of the model will be explained through the analysis of energy R&D planning in Iran. The long term development of energy sector in Iran shall be reviewed based on the results of energy system model and the impact of new technologies shall be evaluated. Thereafter, the optimal profile of R&D for developing the appropriate energy technologies shall be presented. This profile will be concluded from the results of R&D planning model. Finally, the applicability of the energy R&D planning model and its contribution to the profession of energy modeling shall be concluded. Many energy system models have been developed in the last three decades to study the long term development of energy sector which include energy supply models such as MARKAL, MESSAGE, EFOM, ESM, etc. These models are categorized as quasi dynamic energy system models and they are used as analytical tools to review the long term technological and structural development of the energy system. The optimal structure is usually identified according to a set of criteria that may include total system costs, environmental impact and social acceptability. The results of these models reveal the impact of development of new technologies on the long term development of the energy system. They may then be categorized as ETA (Energy Technology Assessment) models. But the question on the extent of resource allocation for research, development and demonstration of new technologies is rarely included in the ETA models. Introduction of changes in the energy system based on the results of technology assessment models necessitates the identification of the R&D profile of new

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