LANDSLIDE SUSCEPTIBILITY MAPPING OF CEKMECE AREA (ISTANBUL, TURKEY) BY CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY

Abstract. As a result of industrialization, throughout the world, the cities have been growing rapidly for the last century. One typical example of these growing cities is Istanbul. Today, the population of Istanbul is over 10 millions. Depending on this rapid urbanization, new suitable areas for settlements and engineering structures are necessary. For this reason, the Cekmece area, west of the Istanbul metropolitan area, is selected as the study area, because the landslides are frequent in this area. The purpose of the present study is to produce landslide susceptibility map of the selected area by conditional probability approach. For this purpose, a landslide database was constructed by both air – photography and field studies. 19.2% of the selected study area is covered by landslides. Mainly, the landslides described in the area are generally located in the lithologies including the permeable sandstone layers and impermeable layers such as claystone, siltstone and mudstone layers. When considering this finding, it is possible to say that one of the main conditioning factors of the landslides in the study area is lithology. In addition to lithology, many landslide conditioning factors are considered during the landslide susceptibility analyses. As a result of the analyses, the class of 5–10° of slope, the class of 180–225 of aspect, the class of 25–50 of altitude, Danisment formation of the lithological units, the slope units of geomorphology, the class of 800–1000 m of distance from faults (DFF), the class of 75–100 m of distance from drainage (DFD) pattern, the class of 0–10m of distance from roads (DFR) and the class of low or impermeable unit of relative permeability map have the higher probability values than the other classes. When compared with the produced landslide susceptibility map, most of the landslides identified in the study area are found to be located in the most (54%) and moderate (40%) susceptible zones. This assessment is also supported by the performance analysis applied at end of the study. As a consequence, the landslide susceptibility map produced herein has a valuable tool for the planning purposes.

[1]  A. Clerici,et al.  A procedure for landslide susceptibility zonation by the conditional analysis method , 2002 .

[2]  D. H. Lee,et al.  Mapping Slope Failure Potential Using Fuzzy Sets , 1992 .

[3]  Matthias Jakob,et al.  The impacts of logging on landslide activity at Clayoquot Sound, British Columbia , 2000 .

[4]  J. Corominas,et al.  Assessment of shallow landslide susceptibility by means of multivariate statistical techniques , 2001 .

[5]  P. Reichenbach,et al.  GIS techniques and statistical models in evaluating landslide hazard , 1991 .

[6]  L. Luzi,et al.  The use of predictive modeling techniques for optimal exploitation of spatial databases: a case study in landslide hazard mapping with expert system-like methods , 2002 .

[7]  M. Turrini,et al.  An objective method to rank the importance of the factors predisposing to landslides with the GIS methodology: application to an area of the Apennines (Valnerina; Perugia, Italy) , 2002 .

[8]  C. Gokceoglu,et al.  Landslide Susceptibility Zoning North of Yenice (NW Turkey) by Multivariate Statistical Techniques , 2004 .

[9]  S. Sarkar,et al.  STATISTICAL MODELS FOR SLOPE INSTABILITY CLASSIFICATION , 1993 .

[10]  F. Pergalani,et al.  Slope Instability Zonation: a Comparison Between Certainty Factor and Fuzzy Dempster–Shafer Approaches , 1998 .

[11]  Rajat Gupta,et al.  Landslide hazard zoning using the GIS approach—A case study from the Ramganga catchment, Himalayas , 1990 .

[12]  José Luís Zêzere,et al.  Landslides in the North of Lisbon Region (Portugal): Conditioning and triggering factors , 1999 .

[13]  A. C. Seijmonsbergen,et al.  Comparing Landslide Hazard Maps , 1999 .

[14]  V. Doyuran,et al.  Data driven bivariate landslide susceptibility assessment using geographical information systems: a method and application to Asarsuyu catchment, Turkey , 2004 .

[15]  W G Reinhardt.  SPECIAL REPORT: TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE. WASHINGTON STATE ATTRACTS TOP DEVELOPERS TO TEST ITS NEW PUBLIC-PRIVATE INITIATIVE , 1994 .

[16]  R. Baum,et al.  Landslides triggered by the winter 1996-97 storms in the Puget Lowland, Washington , 1998 .

[17]  S. Jager,et al.  Landslide susceptibility in the Tully Valley area, Finger Lakes region, New York , 1994 .

[18]  D. Varnes.  SLOPE MOVEMENT TYPES AND PROCESSES , 1978 .

[19]  Saro Lee,et al.  Determination and application of the weights for landslide susceptibility mapping using an artificial neural network , 2004 .

[20]  P. Reichenbach,et al.  Landslide hazard evaluation: a review of current techniques and their application in a multi-scale study, Central Italy , 1999 .

[21]  R. Nagarajan,et al.  Landslide hazard susceptibility mapping based on terrain and climatic factors for tropical monsoon regions , 2000 .

[22]  T. Ayenew,et al.  Inventory of landslides and susceptibility mapping in the Dessie area, northern Ethiopia , 2005 .

[23]  R. Soeters,et al.  LANDSLIDES: INVESTIGATION AND MITIGATION. CHAPTER 8 - SLOPE INSTABILITY RECOGNITION, ANALYSIS, AND ZONATION , 1996 .

[24]  Saro Lee,et al.  Statistical analysis of landslide susceptibility at Yongin, Korea , 2001 .

[25]  David J. Wachal,et al.  Mapping landslide susceptibility in Travis County, Texas, USA , 2000 .

[26]  A. Barka,et al.  Heightened odds of large earthquakes near istanbul: An interaction-based probability calculation , 2000, Science.

[27]  C. F. Lee,et al.  AIGIS-based methodology for natural terrain landslide susceptibility mapping in Hong Kong , 2001 .

[28]  V. Doyuran,et al.  A comparison of the GIS based landslide susceptibility assessment methods: multivariate versus bivariate , 2004 .

[29]  C. Gokceoğlu,et al.  Assessment of landslide susceptibility for a landslide-prone area (north of Yenice, NW Turkey) by fuzzy approach , 2002 .

[30]  Manoj Pant,et al.  Landslide hazard mapping based on geological attributes , 1992 .

[31]  Saro Lee.  Application of Likelihood Ratio and Logistic Regression Models to Landslide Susceptibility Mapping Using GIS , 2004, Environmental management.

[32]  P. Reichenbach,et al.  Comparing Landslide Maps: A Case Study in the Upper Tiber River Basin, Central Italy , 2000, Environmental management.

[33]  R. Anbalagan,et al.  Landslide hazard evaluation and zonation mapping in mountainous terrain , 1992 .

[34]  P. Reichenbach,et al.  Gis Technology in Mapping Landslide Hazard , 1995 .

[35]  C. Gokceoğlu,et al.  Use of fuzzy relations to produce landslide susceptibility map of a landslide prone area (West Black Sea Region, Turkey) , 2004 .

[36]  W. Marcus,et al.  Assessing landslide potential using GIS, soil wetness modeling and topographic attributes, Payette River, Idaho , 2001 .

[37]  Douglas Dudycha,et al.  GIS modelling of slope stability in Phewa Tal watershed, Nepal , 1998 .

[38]  Hüseyin Soysal,et al.  Turkye ve Cevresinin Tarihsel deprem Katalogu , 1981 .

[39]  R. Maharaj.  Landslide processes and landslide susceptibility analysis from an upland watershed: A case study from St. Andrew, Jamaica, West Indies , 1993 .

[40]  R. Soeters,et al.  Slope instability recognition, analysis, and zonation , 1996 .

[41]  R. Anbalagan,et al.  Landslide hazard and risk assessment mapping of mountainous terrains — a case study from Kumaun Himalaya, India , 1996 .

[42]  R. Chander,et al.  Landslide zoning in a part of the Garhwal Himalayas , 1998 .

[43]  E. E. Brabb.  Innovative approaches to landslide hazard and risk mapping , 1985 .

[44]  V. Dokmeci,et al.  Residential-location preferences according to demographic characteristics in Istanbul , 2000 .

[45]  D. J. Vanes.  Slope movement types and processes, in Landslides Analysis and control , 1978 .

[46]  Richard A. Roth.  Factors Affecting Landslide-Susceptibility in San Mateo County, California , 1983 .

[47]  Engin Meriç,et al.  Batı Bakırköy (İstanbul)Tersiyel Çökellerinin Ostakod ve Foraminifer Topluluğu , 1999 .

[48]  Chang-Jo Chung,et al.  Is Prediction of Future Landslides Possible with a GIS? , 2003 .

[49]  P. Atkinson,et al.  Generalised linear modelling of susceptibility to landsliding in the Central Apennines, Italy , 1998 .

[50]  L. Ayalew,et al.  The application of GIS-based logistic regression for landslide susceptibility mapping in the Kakuda-Yahiko Mountains, Central Japan , 2005 .

[51]  T. Kavzoglu,et al.  Assessment of shallow landslide susceptibility using artificial neural networks in Jabonosa River Basin, Venezuela , 2005 .

[52]  Michael Negnevitsky,et al.  Artificial Intelligence: A Guide to Intelligent Systems , 2001 .

[53]  N. N. Ambraseys,et al.  The Seismic Activity of the Marmara Sea Region over the Last 2000 Years , 2002 .

[54]  G. Koukis,et al.  Slope instability phenomena in Greece: A statistical analysis , 1991 .

[55]  C. Gokceoğlu,et al.  Landslide susceptibility mapping of the slopes in the residual soils of the Mengen region (Turkey) by deterministic stability analyses and image processing techniques , 1996 .

[56]  Lucia Luzi,et al.  Slope Instability in Static and Dynamic Conditions for Urban Planning: the ‘Oltre Po Pavese’ Case History (Regione Lombardia – Italy) , 1999 .

[57]  Saro Lee,et al.  Landslide susceptibility analysis using GIS and artificial neural network , 2003 .

[58]  M. Turrini,et al.  Proposal of a method to define areas of landslide hazard and application to an area of the Dolomites, Italy , 1998 .

[59]  José Luís Zêzere,et al.  Landslide susceptibility assessment considering landslide typology. A case study in the area north of Lisbon (Portugal) , 2002 .

[60]  Serap Durmaz,et al.  Landslide inventory of northwestern Anatolia, Turkey , 2005 .

[61]  Clemente Irigaray Fernández,et al.  Verification of landslide susceptibility mapping: a case study , 1999 .

[62]  C. Chung,et al.  Multivariate Regression Analysis for Landslide Hazard Zonation , 1995 .

[63]  Edward Huntington Cobb,et al.  Geological Survey open-file reports of Alaska indexed by quadrangle , 1974 .