Empirical modeling of exchange rate dynamics

1 Introduction.- 2 Conditional Heteroskedasticity In Economic Time Series.- 2.1) Introduction and Summary.- 2.2) Autoregressive Conditionally Heteroskedastic Processes.- 2.2.1) Conditional Moment Structure.- 2.2.2) Unconditional Moment Structure.- 2.3) Temporal Aggregation of ARCH Processes.- 2.4) Estimation and Hypothesis Testing.- 2.5) The Asymptotic Distributions of Some Common Serial Correlation Test Statistics in the Presence of ARCH.- 2.5.1) Background.- 2.5.2) Correcting the Bartlett Standard Error Bands.- 2.5.3) On the Existence of EX4t.- 2.5.4) The Box-Pierce and Ljung-Box Statistics.- 2.5.5) Conclusions.- 2.6) Concluding Remarks.- 3 Weekly Univariate Nominal Exchange Rate Fluctuations.- 3.1) Introduction.- 3.2) Moving Sample Moments as Volatility Measures.- 3.3) The Data.- 3.4) Model Formulation.- 3.5) Empirical Results.- 3.6) Conclusions.- Appendix to Chapter 3 Testing For Unit Roots.- A3.1) The First-Order Case.- A3.2) Higher-Order Processes.- A3.3) General ARMA Representations.- 4 Monthly Univariate Nominal Exchange Rate Fluctuations.- 4.1) Introduction.- 4.2) Empirical Analysis.- 4.3) Comparison With Some Well-Known Results From Finance.- 4.4) Concluding Remarks.- 5 Real Exchange Rate Movements.- 5.1) Introduction.- 5.2) Forms of Purchasing Power Parity.- 5.3) The Relationship Between the Three Key Parity Conditions.- 5.3.a) Background.- 5.3.b) The Parity Conditions.- 5.3.c) Conclusions Regarding the Parity Conditions.- 5.4) On The Stochastic Behavior of Deviations From PPP.- 5.5) Empirical Analysis.- 5.6) Conclusions.- References.