A stochastic distributed-delay model of disease processes in dynamic populations

Hurd, H.S., Kaneene, J.B. and Lloyd, J.W., 1993. A stochastic distributed-delay model of disease processes in dynamic populations. Prev. Vet. Med., 16:21-29. 1A simulation model that is applicable to infectious and non-infectious disease is proposed. This paper describes a model for simulation of infectious and non-infectious disease processes in dynamic populations, and compares its behavior to a stochastic version of the Reed-Frost model for a hypothetical infectious disease. A distributed-delay model is applied. Monte-Carlo simulations of both modeling approaches produced epidemics of randomly determined sizes. Although both models demonstrated the characteristic bimodal distributions of total number of cases per epidemic, the shape of the distributions was slightly different. Separation between the two peaks was not as great with the distributed-delay model as with the Reed-Frost model. The tail was slightly more extended than the Reed-Frost, and there were more epidemics in the 50100 case range. Both models produced similar average attack rates.

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