Hull girder reliability using a Monte Carlo based simulation method

This paper presents a hull girder reliability assessment using a Monte Carlo based simulation method. The simulation method used was developed for component and system reliability problems and provides accurate estimates for the failure probability with reduced computational cost as compared to crude Monte Carlo simulation. The reliability assessment is performed considering as possible failure modes the ultimate collapse of the midship cross section in vertical bending or its local failure due to yielding of the material or buckling collapse of one of its structural elements. The local failure mode was formulated as a system reliability problem. The incremental-iterative method for progressive collapse analysis adopted in the IACS-CSR design rules for oil tankers and bulk carriers was adopted as strength assessment model. Due to the capabilities of the simulation method to deal with high-dimensional problems the geometric and material properties of the midship cross section elements were explicitly included in the simulation as basic random variables.