Risk-Based Modeling to Support NextGen Concept Assessment and Validation

This report provides a brief review of major recent risk-based modeling (RBM) approaches, with particular emphasis on how these tools can be applied during initial Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) concept development and how their use can be validated. Effective safety analysis should begin as early as possible during a systems life cycle in order to have maximum impact. Ideally, safety considerations should play a role even during a new systems concept definition and development. Elements of NextGen are currently progressing through these early phases. NextGen will increasingly rely on integrating multiple systems and information sources together to enable improved efficiency, safety, and reduced environmental impact. Ensuring that such complex interconnected systems are developed to meet safety goals requires corresponding advances in RBM and safety assessment approaches. This report does not cover the more detailed safety analyses that must be applied to mature system concepts. Rather, the focus is on approaches for hazard identification, scoping, and coarse risk estimation for systems in the early conceptual development stage, when details on the design and operation of the system have yet to be resolved. Risk models applied in this constrained context cannot be expected to provide the same complete, quantitative results as they do for mature systems. Following a review of prior models, this report continues with recommendations for RBM development, application, validation, and coordination between NextGen efforts. Also, a discussion on safety and concept development is provided.