A Census of Atmospheric Variability From Seconds to Decades

This paper synthesizes and summarizes atmospheric variability on time scales from seconds to decades through a phenomenological census. We focus mainly on unforced variability in the troposphere, stratosphere, and mesosphere. In addition to atmosphere‐only modes, our scope also includes coupled modes, in which the atmosphere interacts with the other components of the Earth system, such as the ocean, hydrosphere, and cryosphere. The topics covered include turbulence on time scales of seconds and minutes, gravity waves on time scales of hours, weather systems on time scales of days, atmospheric blocking on time scales of weeks, the Madden–Julian Oscillation on time scales of months, the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation and El Niño–Southern Oscillation on time scales of years, and the North Atlantic, Arctic, Antarctic, Pacific Decadal, and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillations on time scales of decades. The paper serves as an introduction to a special collection of Geophysical Research Letters on atmospheric variability. We hope that both this paper and the collection will serve as a useful resource for the atmospheric science community and will act as inspiration for setting future research directions.

[1]  G. Holland,et al.  Tropical cyclones and climate change , 2010, Tropical Cyclone Research and Review.

[2]  Manoj Joshi,et al.  Global Response of Clear‐Air Turbulence to Climate Change , 2017 .

[3]  Dan Li,et al.  Attribution of surface temperature anomalies induced by land use and land cover changes , 2017 .

[4]  Frederic Vitart,et al.  Madden—Julian Oscillation prediction and teleconnections in the S2S database , 2017 .

[5]  D. Muñoz‐Esparza,et al.  Coupled mesoscale‐LES modeling of a diurnal cycle during the CWEX‐13 field campaign: From weather to boundary‐layer eddies , 2017 .

[6]  O. Pauluis,et al.  Wave–Mean-Flow Interactions in Moist Baroclinic Life Cycles , 2017 .

[7]  Chidong Zhang,et al.  A new interpretation of the ability of global models to simulate the MJO , 2017 .

[8]  Karen A. McKinnon,et al.  The Northern Hemisphere Extratropical Atmospheric Circulation Response to ENSO: How Well Do We Know It and How Do We Evaluate Models Accordingly? , 2017 .

[9]  T. Shinoda,et al.  Variations of Northern Hemisphere Storm Track and Extratropical Cyclone Activity Associated with the Madden–Julian Oscillation , 2017 .

[10]  J. Pinto,et al.  Impacts of surface boundary conditions on regional climate model simulations of European climate during the Last Glacial Maximum , 2017 .

[11]  Paul D. Williams,et al.  Increased light, moderate, and severe clear-air turbulence in response to climate change , 2017, Advances in Atmospheric Sciences.

[12]  Michael K. Tippett,et al.  Deterministic skill of ENSO predictions from the North American Multimodel Ensemble , 2017, Climate Dynamics.

[13]  O. Martius,et al.  Increase in the number of extremely strong fronts over Europe? A study based on ERA‐Interim reanalysis (1979–2014) , 2017 .

[14]  O. Martius,et al.  Regional‐scale jet waviness modulates the occurrence of midlatitude weather extremes , 2016 .

[15]  J. Lundquist,et al.  Gusts and shear within hurricane eyewalls can exceed offshore wind turbine design standards , 2016, 1610.00739.

[16]  William M. Putman,et al.  Tropical Waves and the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in a 7-km Global Climate Simulation , 2016 .

[17]  Raphaël Cécé,et al.  Microscale anthropogenic pollution modelling in a small tropical island during weak trade winds: Lagrangian particle dispersion simulations using real nested LES meteorological fields , 2016 .

[18]  S. Woods,et al.  Ubiquitous influence of waves on tropical high cirrus clouds , 2016 .

[19]  E. Barnes,et al.  The Influence of the Madden–Julian Oscillation on Northern Hemisphere Winter Blocking , 2016 .

[20]  Hisashi Nakamura,et al.  The Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Revisited , 2016 .

[21]  J. Catto Extratropical cyclone classification and its use in climate studies , 2016 .

[22]  Past‐ and present‐day Madden‐Julian Oscillation in CNRM‐CM5 , 2016 .

[23]  M. Uddstrom,et al.  The deep propagating gravity wave experiment (deepwave): an airborne and ground-based exploration of gravity wave propagation and effects from their sources throughout the lower and middle atmosphere , 2016 .

[24]  Weixin Xu,et al.  Time scales of shallow‐to‐deep convective transition associated with the onset of Madden‐Julian Oscillations , 2016 .

[25]  William N. Chan,et al.  Impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation on Transatlantic Flight Routes and Clear-Air Turbulence , 2016 .

[26]  J. Dudhia,et al.  Evaluation of PBL Parameterizations in WRF at Subkilometer Grid Spacings: Turbulence Statistics in the Dry Convective Boundary Layer , 2016 .

[27]  D. Lawrence,et al.  Numerical Modeling of Multiscale Dynamics at a High Reynolds Number: Instabilities, Turbulence, and an Assessment of Ozmidov and Thorpe Scales , 2016 .

[28]  M. Hoerling,et al.  Does El Niño intensity matter for California precipitation? , 2016 .

[29]  Adam A. Scaife,et al.  Seasonal to decadal prediction of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation: emerging capability and future prospects , 2016 .

[30]  Z. Kuang,et al.  A mechanism‐denial study on the Madden‐Julian Oscillation with reduced interference from mean state changes , 2015 .

[31]  Pedram Hassanzadeh,et al.  Blocking variability: Arctic Amplification versus Arctic Oscillation , 2015 .

[32]  C. Landsea,et al.  Extremely Intense Hurricanes: Revisiting Webster et al. (2005) after 10 Years , 2015 .

[33]  F. Lott,et al.  Comparison of Gravity Waves in the Southern Hemisphere Derived from Balloon Observations and the ECMWF Analyses , 2015 .

[34]  M. Alexander Global and seasonal variations in three‐dimensional gravity wave momentum flux from satellite limb‐sounding temperatures , 2015 .

[35]  Atlantic opportunities for ENSO prediction , 2015 .

[36]  M. Mcphaden,et al.  The annual cycle in ENSO growth rate as a cause of the spring predictability barrier , 2015 .

[37]  T. Mauritsen,et al.  Improving a global model from the boundary layer: Total turbulent energy and the neutral limit Prandtl number , 2015 .

[38]  E. Guilyardi,et al.  Understanding ENSO Diversity , 2015 .

[39]  N. Calvo,et al.  Role of Stratospheric Sudden Warmings on the response to Central Pacific El Niño , 2015 .

[40]  A. P. Siebesma,et al.  Clouds, circulation and climate sensitivity , 2015 .

[41]  F. Lott,et al.  A parameterization of gravity waves emitted by fronts and jets , 2015 .

[42]  P. Lauritzen,et al.  Gravity waves simulated by high‐resolution Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model , 2014 .

[43]  G. Vecchi,et al.  On the Seasonal Forecasting of Regional Tropical Cyclone Activity , 2014 .

[44]  R. Rasmussen,et al.  A case study of radar observations and WRF LES simulations of the impact of ground-based glaciogenic seeding on orographic clouds and precipitation. Part I: Observations and model validations , 2014 .

[45]  E. Maloney,et al.  Impact of the MJO on the boreal winter extratropical circulation , 2014 .

[46]  Sean Milton,et al.  Coupled versus uncoupled hindcast simulations of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation in the Year of Tropical Convection , 2014 .

[47]  Andrew J. Majda,et al.  Predicting the cloud patterns of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation through a low‐order nonlinear stochastic model , 2014 .

[48]  Adam A. Scaife,et al.  Do seasonal-to-decadal climate predictions underestimate the predictability of the real world? , 2014, Geophysical research letters.

[49]  Brian F. Farrell,et al.  Responses of midlatitude blocks and wave amplitude to changes in the meridional temperature gradient in an idealized dry GCM , 2014 .

[50]  Adam A. Scaife,et al.  Skillful long‐range prediction of European and North American winters , 2014 .

[51]  R. Sharman,et al.  Intensity of thunderstorm‐generated turbulence revealed by large‐eddy simulation , 2014 .

[52]  Maria Athanassiadou,et al.  Predictability of the quasi‐biennial oscillation and its northern winter teleconnection on seasonal to decadal timescales , 2014 .

[53]  Fuqing Zhang,et al.  Internal gravity waves from atmospheric jets and fronts , 2014 .

[54]  D. Hartmann,et al.  The response to MJO‐like forcing in a nonlinear shallow‐water model , 2014 .

[55]  A. Ingersoll,et al.  A theory of the MJO horizontal scale , 2014 .

[56]  Mathew Barlow,et al.  Disruptions of El Niño–Southern Oscillation Teleconnections by the Madden–Julian Oscillation , 2014 .

[57]  Elizabeth A. Barnes,et al.  Exploring recent trends in Northern Hemisphere blocking , 2014 .

[58]  Heini Wernli,et al.  Warm Conveyor Belts in the ERA-Interim Dataset (1979–2010). Part II: Moisture Origin and Relevance for Precipitation , 2014 .

[59]  Heini Wernli,et al.  Warm Conveyor Belts in the ERA-Interim Dataset (1979–2010): Part I: Climatology and Potential Vorticity Evolution , 2014 .

[60]  B. Harvey,et al.  Arctic warming, atmospheric blocking and cold European winters in CMIP5 models , 2014 .

[61]  Andrew J. Majda,et al.  Realistic initiation and dynamics of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation in a coarse resolution aquaplanet GCM , 2013 .

[62]  Chidong Zhang Madden–Julian Oscillation: Bridging Weather and Climate , 2013 .

[63]  A. Holtslag,et al.  Stable Atmospheric Boundary Layers and Diurnal Cycles: Challenges for Weather and Climate Models , 2013 .

[64]  L. Polvani,et al.  Model projections of atmospheric steering of Sandy-like superstorms , 2013, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[65]  Adam A. Scaife,et al.  A comparison between gravity wave momentum fluxes in observations and climate models , 2013 .

[66]  Manoj Joshi,et al.  Intensification of winter transatlantic aviation turbulence in response to climate change , 2013 .

[67]  Duane E. Waliser,et al.  Cracking the MJO nut , 2013 .

[68]  J. Hurrell,et al.  An overview of the North Atlantic Oscillation , 2013 .

[69]  John Michalakes,et al.  WRF-Fire: Coupled Weather–Wildland Fire Modeling with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model , 2013 .

[70]  J. Hanley,et al.  The role of large‐scale atmospheric flow and Rossby wave breaking in the evolution of extreme windstorms over Europe , 2012 .

[71]  The impact of the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation on maximum temperature extremes , 2012 .

[72]  Changhyun Yoo,et al.  Observed connection between stratospheric sudden warmings and the Madden‐Julian Oscillation , 2012 .

[73]  Shingo Watanabe,et al.  Growth of planetary waves and the formation of an elevated stratopause after a major stratospheric sudden warming in a T213L256 GCM , 2012 .

[74]  Robert Sharman,et al.  Influences of Moist Convection on a Cold-Season Outbreak of Clear-Air Turbulence (CAT) , 2012 .

[75]  Robert Sharman,et al.  Sources and dynamics of turbulence in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere: A review , 2012 .

[76]  Paul D. Williams,et al.  Climatic impacts of stochastic fluctuations in air–sea fluxes , 2012 .

[77]  John K. Williams,et al.  Recent Advances in the Understanding of Near-Cloud Turbulence , 2012 .

[78]  D. Easterling,et al.  Changes in climate extremes and their impacts on the natural physical environment , 2012 .

[79]  S. Vavrus,et al.  Evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in mid‐latitudes , 2012 .

[80]  J. Curry,et al.  Impact of declining Arctic sea ice on winter snowfall , 2012, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[81]  K. Seo,et al.  The Global Atmospheric Circulation Response to Tropical Diabatic Heating Associated with the Madden–Julian Oscillation during Northern Winter , 2012 .

[82]  C. Field Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaption , 2012 .

[83]  M. L’Heureux,et al.  The impact of the MJO on clusters of wintertime circulation anomalies over the North American region , 2012, Climate Dynamics.

[84]  C. Gardner,et al.  Lidar observations of neutral Fe layers and fast gravity waves in the thermosphere (110–155 km) at McMurdo (77.8°S, 166.7°E), Antarctica , 2011 .

[85]  Chris Harris,et al.  Improved Atlantic winter blocking in a climate model , 2011 .

[86]  Arun Kumar,et al.  How important is intraseasonal surface wind variability to real‐time ENSO prediction? , 2011 .

[87]  Amy H. Butler,et al.  El Niño, La Niña, and stratospheric sudden warmings: A reevaluation in light of the observational record , 2011 .

[88]  R. Maue Recent historically low global tropical cyclone activity , 2011 .

[89]  Richard L. Collins,et al.  A case study of an elevated stratopause generated in the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model , 2011 .

[90]  M. Matsueda Predictability of Euro‐Russian blocking in summer of 2010 , 2011 .

[91]  Tao Zhang,et al.  Was there a basis for anticipating the 2010 Russian heat wave? , 2011 .

[92]  P. Klotzbach El Niño–Southern Oscillation’s Impact on Atlantic Basin Hurricanes and U.S. Landfalls , 2011 .

[93]  H. Pleijel,et al.  Ozone risk for vegetation in the future climate of Europe based on stomatal ozone uptake calculations , 2011 .

[94]  T. Stocker,et al.  The relationship of winter season North Atlantic blocking frequencies to extreme cold or dry spells in the ERA-40 , 2011 .

[95]  Adam A. Scaife,et al.  Skilful multi-year predictions of Atlantic hurricane frequency , 2010 .

[96]  Pascal Yiou,et al.  Winter 2010 in Europe: A cold extreme in a warming climate , 2010 .

[97]  Shingo Watanabe,et al.  Recent developments in gravity‐wave effects in climate models and the global distribution of gravity‐wave momentum flux from observations and models , 2010 .

[98]  Brian J. Hoskins,et al.  Variability of the North Atlantic eddy‐driven jet stream , 2010 .

[99]  E. Becker,et al.  A simple model for the interhemispheric coupling of the middle atmosphere circulation , 2010 .

[100]  W. Peltier,et al.  Implications of Both Statistical Equilibrium and Global Warming Simulations with CCSM3. Part II: On the Multidecadal Variability in the North Atlantic Basin , 2009 .

[101]  M. Mills,et al.  Intra‐seasonal variability of polar mesospheric clouds due to inter‐hemispheric coupling , 2009 .

[102]  S. Watanabe,et al.  On the origins of mesospheric gravity waves , 2009 .

[103]  L. Polvani,et al.  Blocking precursors to stratospheric sudden warming events , 2009 .

[104]  Robert Sharman,et al.  Convection-Permitting Simulations of the Environment Supporting Widespread Turbulence within the Upper-Level Outflow of a Mesoscale Convective System , 2009 .

[105]  Michael J. Schwartz,et al.  Aura Microwave Limb Sounder observations of dynamics and transport during the record‐breaking 2009 Arctic stratospheric major warming , 2009 .

[106]  J. Sillmann,et al.  Present and future atmospheric blocking and its impact on European mean and extreme climate , 2009 .

[107]  Gilbert Brunet,et al.  An Observed Connection between the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Madden-Julian Oscillation , 2009 .

[108]  M. Höpfner,et al.  Antarctic NAT PSC belt of June 2003: Observational validation of the mountain wave seeding hypothesis , 2009 .

[109]  Implications of Both Statistical Equilibrium and Global Warming Simulations with CCSM3. Part I: On the Decadal Variability in the North Pacific Basin , 2009 .

[110]  P. Read,et al.  Inertia–Gravity Waves Emitted from Balanced Flow: Observations, Properties, and Consequences , 2008 .

[111]  Michael H. Depledge,et al.  Ground-level ozone in the 21st century: future trends, impacts and policy implications , 2008 .

[112]  J. Knox,et al.  Application of the Lighthill–Ford Theory of Spontaneous Imbalance to Clear-Air Turbulence Forecasting , 2008 .

[113]  M. L’Heureux,et al.  Boreal Winter Links between the Madden-Julian Oscillation and the Arctic Oscillation , 2008 .

[114]  J. Chan,et al.  Decadal variations of intense typhoon occurrence in the western North Pacific , 2008, Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences.

[115]  W. Peltier,et al.  On the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation: Might they be related? , 2007 .

[116]  B. Hoskins,et al.  Blocking and Rossby Wave Breaking on the Dynamical Tropopause in the Southern Hemisphere , 2007 .

[117]  C. Schwierz,et al.  Atmospheric blocking: space-time links to the NAO and PNA , 2007 .

[118]  C. Schwierz,et al.  A Multifaceted Climatology of Atmospheric Blocking and Its Recent Linear Trend , 2007 .

[119]  I. Smith,et al.  Association between Australian rainfall and the Southern Annular Mode , 2007 .

[120]  R. Sharman,et al.  Gravity wave breaking, secondary wave generation, and mixing above deep convection in a three‐dimensional cloud model , 2006 .

[121]  M. Mcphaden,et al.  Large scale dynamics and MJO forcing of ENSO variability , 2006 .

[122]  M. Chelliah,et al.  Leading Tropical Modes Associated with Interannual and Multidecadal Fluctuations in North Atlantic Hurricane Activity , 2006 .

[123]  Gwendal Rivière,et al.  Characteristics of the Atlantic Storm-Track Eddy Activity and Its Relation with the North Atlantic Oscillation , 2005 .

[124]  Suzana J. Camargo,et al.  Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Intensity and ENSO , 2005 .

[125]  Chidong Zhang,et al.  Madden‐Julian Oscillation , 2005 .

[126]  P. Read,et al.  On the generation mechanisms of short-scale unbalanced modes in rotating two-layer flows with vertical shear , 2005, Journal of Fluid Mechanics.

[127]  J. Pyle,et al.  Influence of El Niño Southern Oscillation on stratosphere/troposphere exchange and the global tropospheric ozone budget , 2005 .

[128]  M. Meredith,et al.  Variability of Antarctic circumpolar transport and the Southern Annular Mode associated with the Madden‐Julian Oscillation , 2004 .

[129]  Bradfield Lyon,et al.  The strength of El Niño and the spatial extent of tropical drought , 2004 .

[130]  M. Blackburn,et al.  Factors contributing to the summer 2003 European heatwave , 2004 .

[131]  Huw C. Davies,et al.  Perspicacious indicators of atmospheric blocking , 2004 .

[132]  R. Greatbatch,et al.  Nonstationary impact of ENSO on Euro‐Atlantic winter climate , 2004 .

[133]  J. Hacker,et al.  Transition to Turbulence in Shear above the Tropopause , 2004 .

[134]  R. Seager,et al.  Mechanisms of Hemispherically Symmetric Climate Variability , 2003 .

[135]  M. Alexander,et al.  Gravity wave dynamics and effects in the middle atmosphere , 2003 .

[136]  Brian J. Hoskins,et al.  A new perspective on blocking , 2003 .

[137]  J. Lifland The North Atlantic Oscillation: Climatic Significance and Environmental Impact , 2003 .

[138]  Duane E. Waliser,et al.  Potential Predictability of the Madden–Julian Oscillation , 2003 .

[139]  E. Pavelin,et al.  Airborne observations of turbulence, mixing, and gravity waves in the tropopause region , 2002 .

[140]  E. Roeckner,et al.  Forcing of the quasi‐biennial oscillation from a broad spectrum of atmospheric waves , 2002 .

[141]  S. Louazel,et al.  Decadal Oceanic Response to Stochastic Wind Forcing , 2001 .

[142]  Dimitrios Gyalistras,et al.  North Atlantic Oscillation – Concepts And Studies , 2001 .

[143]  Kevin Hamilton,et al.  The quasi‐biennial oscillation , 2001 .

[144]  C. Eden,et al.  North Atlantic Interdecadal Variability: Oceanic response to the North Atlantic Oscillation (1865-1997) , 2001 .

[145]  Uwe Ulbrich,et al.  Three extreme storms over Europe in December 1999 , 2001 .

[146]  Adam A. Scaife,et al.  Realistic quasi‐biennial oscillations in a simulation of the global climate , 2000 .

[147]  J. Hurrell,et al.  The Arctic Ocean Response to the North Atlantic Oscillation , 2000 .

[148]  R A Kerr,et al.  A North Atlantic Climate Pacemaker for the Centuries , 2000, Science.

[149]  Dennis L. Hartmann,et al.  Modulation of Eastern North Pacific Hurricanes by the Madden-Julian Oscillation , 2000 .

[150]  John M. Wallace,et al.  North atlantic oscillatiodannular mode: Two paradigms—one phenomenon , 2000 .

[151]  C. Deser On the teleconnectivity of the “Arctic Oscillation” , 2000 .

[152]  A. Leetmaa,et al.  Extreme Precipitation Events in the Western United States Related to Tropical Forcing , 2000 .

[153]  R. Kwok Recent changes in Arctic Ocean sea ice motion associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation , 1999 .

[154]  D. Gong,et al.  Definition of Antarctic Oscillation index , 1999 .

[155]  Dara Entekhabi,et al.  Eurasian snow cover variability and northern hemisphere climate predictability , 1999 .

[156]  M. Visbeck,et al.  An ocean model's response to North Atlantic Oscillation‐like wind forcing , 1998 .

[157]  Kevin E. Trenberth,et al.  Progress during TOGA in understanding and modeling global teleconnections associated with tropical sea surface temperatures , 1998 .

[158]  W. Grant,et al.  Seasonal evolution of Rossby and gravity wave induced laminae in ozonesonde data obtained from Wallops Island, Virginia , 1998 .

[159]  J. Wallace,et al.  A Pacific Interdecadal Climate Oscillation with Impacts on Salmon Production , 1997 .

[160]  Mojib Latif,et al.  Decadal climate variability over the North Pacific and North America: Dynamics and predictability , 1996 .

[161]  L. Pfister,et al.  Dehydration of the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere by subvisible cirrus clouds near the tropical tropopause , 1996 .

[162]  J. Wallace,et al.  Low-frequency variability in the Northern Hemisphere winter: geographical distribution, structure and time-scale dependence , 1989 .

[163]  C. Ropelewski,et al.  Global and Regional Scale Precipitation Patterns Associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation , 1987 .

[164]  W. M. Gray,et al.  Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Frequency. Part I: El Niño and 30 mb Quasi-Biennial Oscillation Influences , 1984 .

[165]  J. Holton The Influence of Gravity Wave Breaking on the General Circulation of the Middle Atmosphere , 1983 .

[166]  T. Matsuno A Quasi One-Dimensional Model of the Middle Atmosphere Circulation Interacting with Internal Gravity Waves , 1982 .

[167]  P. R. Julian,et al.  Description of Global-Scale Circulation Cells in the Tropics with a 40–50 Day Period , 1972 .

[168]  P. R. Julian,et al.  Detection of a 40–50 Day Oscillation in the Zonal Wind in the Tropical Pacific , 1971 .

[169]  H. Panofsky,et al.  Clear air turbulence: a mystery may be unfolding. , 1970, Science.