Using 18th century storm-surge data from the Dutch Coast to improve the confidence in flood-risk estimates

For the design of cost-effective coastal defence a precise estimate is needed of the 1/10 000 per year storm surge. A more precise estimate requires more observations. Therefore, the three greatest storm surges that hit the northern part of the Holland Coast in the 18th century are reconstructed. The reconstructions are based on paintings, drawings, written records and shell deposits that have recently appeared. The storm-surge levels of these storms have been estimated using numerical modelling of the coastal processes. Here we show how these reconstructions can be used in combination with extreme value statistics to give a more confident estimate of low probability events.

[1]  P. van Gelder,et al.  The Effect of the 18.6-Year Lunar Nodal Cycle on Regional Sea-Level Rise Estimates , 2012 .

[2]  D. Schaart,et al.  Extracting storm-surge data from coastal dunes for improved assessment of flood risk , 2011 .

[3]  Jean-Noël Thépaut,et al.  Northern Hemisphere atmospheric stilling partly attributed to an increase in surface roughness , 2010 .

[4]  Dario Camuffo.  Le niveau de la mer à Venise d'après l'œuvre picturale de Véronèse, Canaletto et Bellotto , 2010 .

[5]  C. Wilkinson,et al.  Atmospheric circulation and storminess derived from Royal Navy logbooks: 1685 to 1750 , 2010 .

[6]  D. Roelvink,et al.  Modelling storm impacts on beaches, dunes and barrier islands , 2009 .

[7]  A. Pool.  Modelling the 1775 storm surge deposits at the Heemskerk dunes , 2009 .

[8]  J. Wallinga,et al.  Optically stimulated luminescence dating of storm surge sediments: a test case from the Netherlands , 2009 .

[9]  S. Jevrejeva,et al.  Recent global sea level acceleration started over 200 years ago? , 2008 .

[10]  S. Elgar.  Waves in Oceanic and Coastal Waters , 2007 .

[11]  E. M. Coeveld,et al.  Dune erosion - product 3: Probabilistic dune erosion prediction method , 2007 .

[12]  A. Black,et al.  Historical and pooled flood frequency analysis for the River Tay at Perth, Scotland , 2006 .

[13]  G. Können,et al.  Trends in storminess over the Netherlands, 1962–2002 , 2005 .

[14]  J. D. Opsteegh,et al.  Uncertainties in extreme surge level estimates from observational records , 2005, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences.

[15]  A. D. Kraker.  Reconstruction of Storm Frequency in the North Sea Area of the Pre- industrial Period, 1400-1625 and the Connection with Reconstructed Time Series of Temperatures , 2005 .

[16]  J. D. Opsteegh,et al.  Improving 104‐year surge level estimates using data of the ECMWF seasonal prediction system , 2004 .

[17]  Eric P. Smith,et al.  An Introduction to Statistical Modeling of Extreme Values , 2002, Technometrics.

[18]  P.H.A.J.M. van Gelder,et al.  Statistical methods for the risk-based design of civil structures , 2000 .

[19]  J. D. Ruig.  Coastline management in The Netherlands: human use versus natural dynamics , 1998 .

[20]  H. Hass.  Northern Europe climate variations during late Holocene: evidence from marine Skagerrak , 1996 .

[21]  J. Buisman,et al.  Duizend jaar weer, wind en water in de Lage Landen. Deel 2: 1300-1450 , 1996 .

[22]  P.J.E.M. van Dam,et al.  - [Review of: J. Buisman (1996) Duizend jaar weer, wind en water in de Lage Landen II 1300-1450, III 1450-1575] , 1996 .

[23]  Marcel J. F. Stive,et al.  Holocene storm surge signatures in the coastal dunes of the western Netherlands , 1995 .

[24]  Laurens de Haan,et al.  Fighting the arch–enemy with mathematics‘ , 1990 .

[25]  J. Graaff.  Probabilistic design of dunes; an example from the Netherlands , 1986 .

[26]  C. Kidson,et al.  Stormvloeden en Rivieroverstromingen in Nederland. I, de periode voor 1400 , 1971 .

[27]  H. Charnock.  Wind stress on a water surface , 1955 .

[28]  D. vanDantzig,et al.  Economic decision problems for flood prevention , 1954 .

[29]  E. Gumbel.  Statistical Theory of Extreme Values and Some Practical Applications : A Series of Lectures , 1954 .