Roadway accident risk prediction based on Bayesian probabilistic networks

74 3.1 Introduction 74 3.2 Bayesian inference 77 3.2.1 General 77 3.2.2 Difference between Empirical and Full Bayes 78 3.2.3 Use of the Empirical Bayes approach to develop prediction models 78 3.3 Methods 79 3.3.1 Definitions and data pre-processing 79 3.3.2 Regression Analysis 81 3.3.3 Empirical Bayes Method 82 3.3.4 Bayesian Probabilistic Networks Method 84 3.4 Model development 87 3.4.1 Data 87 3.4.2 Definitions and Data Pre-Processing 88 3.4.3 Multivariate Poisson-lognormal Regression Analysis 93 3.4.4 Empirical Bayes Method 93 3.4.5 Bayesian Probabilistic Networks Method 100 3.5 Model comparison 103 3.6 Discussion 106 3.7 Conclusions 108 Acknowledgements 110