An EVT Primer for Credit Risk

We review, from the point of view of credit risk management, classical Extreme Value Theory in its one–dimensional (EVT) as well as more–dimensional (MEVT) setup. The presentation is highly coloured by the current economic crisis against which background we discuss the (non–)usefulness of certain methodological developments. We further present an outlook on current and future research for the modelling of extremes and rare event probabilities.

[1]  G. G. Stokes "J." , 1890, The New Yale Book of Quotations.

[2]  T. Mann The Black Swan , 1954 .

[3]  E. J. Gumbel,et al.  Statistics of Extremes. , 1960 .

[4]  Masaaki Sibuya,et al.  Bivariate extreme statistics, I , 1960 .

[5]  S. Resnick Extreme Values, Regular Variation, and Point Processes , 1987 .

[6]  J. Angus Asymptotic theory for bootstrapping the extremes , 1992 .

[7]  C. Goodhart,et al.  An academic response to Basel II , 2001 .

[8]  P. Embrechts,et al.  Risk Management: Correlation and Dependence in Risk Management: Properties and Pitfalls , 2002 .

[9]  Eric P. Smith,et al.  An Introduction to Statistical Modeling of Extreme Values , 2002, Technometrics.

[10]  J. Corcoran Modelling Extremal Events for Insurance and Finance , 2002 .

[11]  Thorsten Rheinländer Risk Management: Value at Risk and Beyond , 2003 .

[12]  Holger Rootzén,et al.  Extreme Values in Finance, Telecommunications, and the Environment , 2003 .

[13]  Extreme Values in Finance, Telecommunications, and the Environment , 2004 .

[14]  P. Embrechts,et al.  Quantitative Risk Management: Concepts, Techniques, and Tools , 2005 .

[15]  Nicole A. Lazar,et al.  Statistics of Extremes: Theory and Applications , 2005, Technometrics.

[16]  C. Bluhm,et al.  Structured Credit Portfolio Analysis, Baskets and CDOs , 2006 .

[17]  L. Haan,et al.  Extreme value theory : an introduction , 2006 .

[18]  S. Resnick Heavy-Tail Phenomena: Probabilistic and Statistical Modeling , 2006 .

[19]  L. Haan,et al.  Extreme value theory , 2006 .

[20]  Peter W. Glynn,et al.  Stochastic Simulation: Algorithms and Analysis , 2007 .

[21]  Nassim Nicholas Taleb,et al.  The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable , 2007 .

[22]  M. Meek,et al.  IT risk management , 2014 .

[23]  Michael R Chernick,et al.  Bootstrap Methods: A Guide for Practitioners and Researchers , 2007 .

[24]  P. Embrechts,et al.  High Risk Scenarios and Extremes , 2007 .

[25]  Michel Crouhy,et al.  The Subprime Credit Crisis of 07 , 2008 .

[26]  R. Jarrow,et al.  The Subprime Credit Crisis of 2007 , 2008 .

[27]  Paul Embrechts,et al.  Copulas: A Personal View , 2009 .

[28]  Viral V. Acharya,et al.  Restoring financial stability : how to repair a failed system , 2009 .

[29]  D. McLeish Bounded Relative Error Importance Sampling and Rare Event Simulation , 2010, ASTIN Bulletin.

[30]  P. Embrechts,et al.  Meta densities and the shape of their sample clouds , 2010, J. Multivar. Anal..

[31]  P. Embrechts,et al.  Revisiting the Edge, Ten Years On , 2010 .

[32]  Paul Embrechts,et al.  The AEP algorithm for the fast computation of the distribution of the sum of dependent random variables , 2011, 1106.2920.

[33]  Marshall F Chalverus,et al.  The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable , 2007 .