The regional photovoltaic power forecasting method based on statistical up-scaling approach

Statistical up-scaling method based on the data of several representative photovoltaic power stations is developed to produce regional photovoltaic power forecasting.The selection of the representative photovoltaic power stations and the estimation of the corresponding parameters are mostly determined by the correlation coefficients between single power station output and regional total power output and the forecasting accuracy of each power station.Operation data of some photovoltaic power stations are used to evaluate the proposed approach.The result shows that our approach is appropriate for the generation of regional photovoltaic power prediction with reasonable accuracies.Compared to the conventional accumulating method,the proposed approach saves computational resource and modeling time and reduces the demand for complete data of all photovoltaic power stations.It is proved that the proposed approach has great practical value in regional photovoltaic power forecasting.