CRPP: Competing Recurrent Point Process for Modeling Visibility Dynamics in Information Diffusion

Accurate modeling of how the visibility of a piece of information varies across time has a wide variety of applications. For example, in an e-commerce site like Amazon, it can help to identify which product is preferred over others; in Twitter, it can predict which hashtag may go viral against others. Visibility of a piece of information, therefore, indicates the ability of a piece of information to attract the attention of the users, against the rest. Therefore, apart from the individual information diffusion processes, the information visibility dynamics also involves a competition process, where each information diffusion process competes against each other to draw the attention of users. Despite models of individual information diffusion processes abounding in literature, modeling the competition process is left unaddressed. In this paper, we propose Competing Recurrent Point Process (CRPP), a probabilistic deep machinery that unifies the nonlinear generative dynamics of a collection of diffusion processes, and inter-process competition - the two ingredients of visibility dynamics. To design this model, we rely on a recurrent neural network (RNN) guided generative framework, where the recurrent unit captures the joint temporal dynamics of a group of processes. This is aided by a discriminative model which captures the underlying competition process by discriminating among the various processes using several ranking functions. On ten diverse datasets crawled from Amazon and Twitter, CRPP offers a substantial performance boost in predicting item visibility against several baselines, thereby achieving significant accuracy in predicting both the collective diffusion mechanism and the underlying competition processes.