US navy power transformer sizing requirements using probabilistic analysis

Sizing power transformers in US Navy ships is an issue that surfaced in the design of a new amphibious assault ship. Previous methods averaged the power output from generators over each transformer and calculated load based on a demand factor curve. This technique is not accurate enough in the contract design stages or for zonal architectures since it artificially averages the electrical loads. The proposed methodology uses a systems engineering approach, applying a probabilistic (Monte Carlo) analysis of the electrical loads at each transformer, based on the electrical load analysis (ELA). This methodology will allow the designer to incorporate risk mitigation into a radial or zonal electrical system design to verify adequacy and reduce cost through probability-based transformer sizing.