What Explains Aid Project Success in Post-Conflict Situations?

This paper investigates the effectiveness of post-conflict aid at the project level and aims to identify post-conflict situations as a window of opportunity for project success. The Independent Evaluation Group dataset provides extensive information on the characteristics of World Bank projects including an independent rating of their success, supervision and evaluation quality. The paper estimates the probability of success of aid projects depending on the characteristics of the intervention and looks for possible special patterns in post civil war situations. The results suggest that the probability of success of World Bank projects increases as peace lasts. Supervision appears to be a crucial determinant of the success of projects, especially during the first years of peace. Although the results of the sector-level analysis need to be taken with caution, the authors find that projects in the transport sector and in the urban development sector appear more successful in post-conflict environments. On the contrary, education projects seem less successful and therefore need to be highly supervised. Projects in the private sector should wait as they face a higher probability of failure in the first years of peace.

[1]  Daniel A. Kaufmann,et al.  Good Countries or Good Projects? Macro and Micro Correlates of World Bank Project Performance , 2011 .

[2]  P. Collier,et al.  The Economic Legacy of Civil War: Firm Level Evidence from Sierra Leone , 2010 .

[3]  P. Guillaumont,et al.  When Instability Increases the Effectiveness of Aid Projects , 2006 .

[4]  Paul Collier,et al.  Post-Conflict Risks , 2008 .

[5]  P. Collier.  Aid, policy and growth in post-conflict countries , 2002 .

[6]  J. Isham,et al.  The Forgotten Rationale for Policy Reform: The Productivity of Investment Projects , 1995 .

[7]  Ibrahim A. Elbadawi,et al.  Foreign Aid, the Real Exchange Rate, and Economic Growth in the Aftermath of Civil Wars , 2008 .

[8]  P. Collier,et al.  Aid, policy and peace , 2002 .

[9]  Nicola Limodio.  The Success of Infrastructure Projects in Low-Income Countries and the Role of Selectivity , 2011 .

[10]  Christopher Kilby,et al.  Supervision and Performance : The Case of World Bank Projects , 2000 .

[11]  D. Dollar,et al.  Sowing and Reaping: Institutional Quality and Project Outcomes in Developing Countries , 2005 .

[12]  P. Collier.  Post-conflict Recovery: How Should Strategies Be Distinctive? , 2009 .

[13]  Victor A. B. Davies,et al.  Postconflict Monetary Reconstruction , 2008 .

[14]  R. Weaving,et al.  World Bank Operations Evaluation Department: The First 30 Years , 2003 .

[15]  J. Svensson,et al.  What Explains the Success or Failure of Structural Adjustment Programs? , 1998 .