The impact of selection bias on estimation of subsequent event risk Running title: Selection bias in studies of subsequent CHD events

*Joint first authors and corresponding authors, ** Joint senior authors a Department of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia, United States. b Institute of Cardiovascular Science and The Farr Institute, University College London, WC1E 6BT, United Kingdom. c Department of Non-communicable Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, United Kingdom. Department of Health Sciences, University of Leicester, United Kingdom. d Clinical Trial Service Unit & Epidemiological Studies Unit (CTSU), Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, Richard Doll Building, Old Road Campus, Roosevelt Drive, Oxford OX3 7LF, United Kingdom. e Medical Research Council Population Health Research Unit at the University of Oxford, UK f Department of Medicine, McGill University, Montreal Quebec, Canada. g Department of Cardiology, Division of Heart and Lungs, University Medical Center Utrecht, Heidelberglaan 100, 3584CX Utrecht, Netherlands. h Intermountain Heart Institute, Intermountain Medical Center, Salt Lake City, Utah, United States. i Department of Biomedical Informatics, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, Utah, United States. j Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, United States.

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