Development of a Predictive Model for Spoilage of Cooked Cured Meat Products and Its Validation Under Constant and Dynamic Temperature Storage Conditions

In the present study, the spoilage flora of a sliced cooked cured meat product was studied to determine the specific spoilage organism (SSO). The physicochemical changes of the product during its storage in a temperature range of 0 to 12 °C were also studied. Among the primary models used to model the temperature effect on SSO growth, the modified Gompertz described better the experimental data than modified logistic and Baranyi. The derived growth kinetic parameters, such as maximum specific growth rate (μmax) and lag phase duration (LPD), were modeled by using the square root and Arrhenius equation (secondary models). The latter described better the data of μmax and LPD; therefore, this model was chosen for correlating temperature with kinetic parameters. The selection of the best model (primary or secondary) was based on some statistical indices (the root mean square error of residuals of the model, the coefficient of multiple determination, the F-test, the goodness of fit, the bias, and accuracy factor). The validation of the developed model was carried out under constant and dynamic temperature storage conditions. To validate its usefulness to similar products, another sliced cooked cured meat product stored under constant temperature conditions was also used. The log shelf life model was used for shelf life predictions based on the evident (visual defects) or the incipient spoilage (attainment of a certain spoilage level by SSO and/or chemical spoilage index). The possibility for shelf life predictions constitutes a valuable information source for the quality assurance systems of meat industries.