Fuzzy probabilistic expert system for occupational hazard assessment in construction

Abstract Considering the extensive growth of the construction industry in developing countries, the trend of occupational accidents in this sector is growing in recent years. In this regard, developing a hazard management process with a proactive vision makes it possible to identify and prioritize risky points in construction sites and apply preventive measures. Hence, in this paper, a fuzzy probabilistic rule-based expert system is developed for occupational hazard assessment. A fuzzy probabilistic system permits us to model uncertainties related to accident databases and the randomness due to environmental, natural, or time changes. Merging randomness into the occupational risk assessment problem in the construction industry enables the authorities to manage hazards proactively and brings about some practical benefits. The proposed fuzzy probabilistic model benefits from a rule base generated based on fuzzy risk-based statistical and data mining analyses of accident database along with a comprehensive literature review and interviews with experts. This model is tested on four major construction case studies. Through an intensive validation process, the model was successfully analyzed and ranked the risks of different types. The results are encouraging and the model can be implemented in different construction projects.

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