Forecasting Fire Season Severity in South America Using Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

Sea surface temperature anomalies can predict annual fire season severity in South America up to 3 to 5 months in advance. Fires in South America cause forest degradation and contribute to carbon emissions associated with land use change. We investigated the relationship between year-to-year changes in fire activity in South America and sea surface temperatures. We found that the Oceanic Niño Index was correlated with interannual fire activity in the eastern Amazon, whereas the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation index was more closely linked with fires in the southern and southwestern Amazon. Combining these two climate indices, we developed an empirical model to forecast regional fire season severity with lead times of 3 to 5 months. Our approach may contribute to the development of an early warning system for anticipating the vulnerability of Amazon forests to fires, thus enabling more effective management with benefits for climate and air quality.

[1]  R. B. Jackson,et al.  A Large and Persistent Carbon Sink in the World’s Forests , 2011, Science.

[2]  R. DeFries,et al.  Mapping canopy damage from understory fires in Amazon forests using annual time series of Landsat and MODIS data , 2011 .

[3]  B. Soares-Filho,et al.  Simulating fire regimes in the Amazon in response to climate change and deforestation. , 2011, Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America.

[4]  Dong Eun Lee,et al.  North Tropical Atlantic influence on western Amazon fire season variability , 2011 .

[5]  O. Phillips,et al.  The 2010 Amazon Drought , 2011, Science.

[6]  J. Randerson,et al.  Global fire emissions and the contribution of deforestation, savanna, forest, agricultural, and peat fires (1997-2009) , 2010 .

[7]  Y. Shimabukuro,et al.  The Incidence of Fire in Amazonian Forests with Implications for REDD , 2010, Science.

[8]  Ning Zeng,et al.  An Atlantic influence on Amazon rainfall , 2010 .

[9]  L. Aragão,et al.  Exploring the likelihood and mechanism of a climate-change-induced dieback of the Amazon rainforest , 2009, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[10]  R. B. Jackson,et al.  CO 2 emissions from forest loss , 2009 .

[11]  J. Randerson,et al.  Agricultural intensification increases deforestation fire activity in Amazonia , 2008 .

[12]  D. Morton,et al.  Validation of GOES and MODIS active fire detection products using ASTER and ETM+ data , 2008 .

[13]  R. Betts,et al.  Increasing risk of Amazonian drought due to decreasing aerosol pollution , 2008, Nature.

[14]  Renato Ramos da Silva,et al.  Regional Impacts of Future Land-Cover Changes on the Amazon Basin Wet-Season Climate , 2008 .

[15]  Y. Shimabukuro,et al.  Interactions between rainfall, deforestation and fires during recent years in the Brazilian Amazonia , 2008, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences.

[16]  C. Nobre,et al.  The Drought of Amazonia in 2005 , 2008 .

[17]  Kevin E. Trenberth,et al.  Atlantic hurricanes and natural variability in 2005 , 2006 .

[18]  B. Soares-Filho,et al.  Modelling conservation in the Amazon basin , 2006, Nature.

[19]  R. Dickinson,et al.  Rainfall and its seasonality over the Amazon in the 21st century as assessed by the coupled models for the IPCC AR4 , 2006 .

[20]  I. Fung,et al.  Root functioning modifies seasonal climate. , 2005, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[21]  J. Morisette.  Validation of MODIS Active Fire Detection Products Derived from Two Algorithms , 2005 .

[22]  J. M. Shepherd,et al.  A Review of Current Investigations of Urban-Induced Rainfall and Recommendations for the Future , 2005 .

[23]  Scott D. Miller,et al.  SEASONALITY OF WATER AND HEAT FLUXES OVER A TROPICAL FOREST IN EASTERN AMAZONIA , 2004 .

[24]  D. Nepstad,et al.  Amazon drought and its implications for forest flammability and tree growth: a basin‐wide analysis , 2004 .

[25]  M. Cochrane.  Fire science for rainforests , 2003, Nature.

[26]  Gérard Cochonneau,et al.  Interannual rainfall variability in the Amazon basin and sea‐surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific and the tropical Atlantic Oceans , 2002 .

[27]  D. Roy,et al.  The MODIS fire products , 2002 .

[28]  C. Tucker,et al.  Global Interannual Variations in Sea Surface Temperature and Land Surface Vegetation, Air Temperature, and Precipitation , 2001 .

[29]  Kevin E. Trenberth,et al.  The Definition of El Niño. , 1997 .

[30]  E. Davidson,et al.  The role of deep roots in the hydrological and carbon cycles of Amazonian forests and pastures , 1994, Nature.

[31]  J. Shukla,et al.  Amazon Deforestation and Climate Change , 1990, Science.

[32]  C. Ropelewski,et al.  Global and Regional Scale Precipitation Patterns Associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation , 1987 .

[33]  Ajit Subramaniam,et al.  Causes and impacts of the 2005 Amazon drought , 2008 .

[34]  V. Kousky,et al.  The Southern Oscillation : oceanic-atmospheric circulation changes and related rainfall anomalies , 1983 .