Impact of active and break wind spells on the demand–supply balance in wind energy in India

With an installed capacity of over 19,000 MW, the wind power currently accounts for almost 70% of the total installed capacity among the renewable energy sector in India. The extraction of wind power mainly depends on prevailing meteorology which is strongly influenced by monsoon variability. The monsoon season is characterized by significant fluctuations in between periods of wet and dry spells. During the dry spells, the demand for power from agriculture and cooling equipment increases, whereas during the wet periods, such demand reduces, although, at the same time, the power supply increases because of strong westerly winds contributing to an enhanced production of wind energy. At this backdrop, we aim to assess the impact of intra-seasonal wind variability on the balance of energy supply and demand during monsoon seasons in India. Further, we explore the probable cause of wind variability by relating it to El Nino events. It is observed that the active and break phases in wind significantly impact the overall wind potential output. Although the dry spells are generally found to reduce the overall wind potential, their impact on the potential seems to have declined after the year 2000. The impact of meteorological changes on variations in wind power studied in this work should find applications typically in taking investment decisions on conventional generation facilities, like thermal, which are currently used to maintain the balance of power supply and demand.

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