One-Wave Perceptual Deterrence Research: Some Grounds for the Renewed Examination of Cross-Sectional Methods

Across the past ten years serious questions have been raised about the validity of cross-sectional (“one-wave”) perceptual deterrence research. Panel (“two-wave”) designs have therefore become the preferred method of conducting perceptual deterrence research. The present article provides grounds for the renewed examination of cross-sectional designs. It begins by probing criticism of one-wave designs. Attention is then directed to problems posed by two-wave designs. Established next are two of the circumstances that enhance the validity of one-wave data. Following discussion that includes specification of an agenda for future research, the basic conclusion drawn is that exclusive reliance on panel designs is premature.

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