Probabilistic Mission Impact Assessment based on Widespread Local Events

Assessing and understanding the impact of scattered and widespread events onto a mission is an ongoing problem. Current approaches employ score-based algorithms leading to spurious results. This paper provides a formal, mathematical model for mission impact assessment. Based on this model we reduce mission impact assessment of widespread local events to a well-understood mathematical problem. Following a probabilistic approach, we present a feasible solution to this problem and evaluate the solution experimentally. We put high care in only using actually available data and kinds of expertise.