El Niño–southern oscillation influences on rice production in Sri Lanka

Despite advances in the capacity to predict the evolution of the El Niño–southern oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and advances in understanding the influence of ENSO on rainfall in tropical regions such as Sri Lanka, there has been limited use of climate predictions for agricultural decision‐making. Climatic fluctuations have a profound influence on the cultivation of crops such as rice, which is the staple food in Sri Lanka. Here, the relationship between the sea‐surface temperature‐based ENSO index of NINO3.4, rainfall and the departure of Sri Lankan rice production from long‐term trends, is analysed for the ‘Maha’ (October to March) and ‘Yala’ (April to September) cultivation seasons between 1952 and 1997.

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