Threshold contour production of rainfall intensity that induces landslides in susceptible regions of northern Turkey

This study is aimed at developing rainfall intensity contour lines to illustrate upper and lower rainfall intensity limits that trigger landslides. The first phase began by developing precipitation empirical thresholds as follows: (i) the relationship between intensity (I) and accumulative rainfall (E) and date (I-date and E-date, respectively); (ii) the antecedent rainfall up to 3, 5, 10, 15, and 30 days prior to landslide occurrence; (iii) the relationship between the I and the duration (D); and (iv) the relationship between the cumulative rainfall event and the D (ID and ED, respectively). The data recorded by two rain gauges (Rize and Rize–Pazar) in the province of Rize in Northwest Turkey were used to analyze 24 previous landslide events during the period 1985 to 2006. The second phase began by developing surface interpolation maps after deriving threshold and assumption of normality, thereby producing contours of the rainfall intensity data of the rain gauges. All thresholds were verified by no-rainfall events, and the ID threshold successfully distinguished 97 and 95% (in Rize and Rize–Pazar, respectively) of false alarm days with the highest accuracy among the thresholds (antecedent rainfall days, I-date, and E-date thresholds). Thus, a descriptive analysis was conducted using the rainfall data of selected rain gauges to test the normality of rainfall between the selected rain gauges in the study area. The linear correlation coefficient was found at 0.75, and other tests verified the normality with optimistic results. A universal or collaborative kriging interpolation (UK) in a geographic information systems’ environment was used to estimate the spatial distribution of rainfall intensity because rainfall is controlled robustly by topography and other factors. This distribution corresponds to the landslide day event and hole-effect mathematical models that are used to forecast un-sampled values in the study area. Topographic elevation, slope, and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) maps were integrated into the landslide day events by using rainfall intensity. The UK map was validated by a cross-validation procedure using root-mean-square error. The highest interpolated surface map accuracy was reached without using an external drift (using rainfall intensity values only) and when using an NDVI as the external drift. The optimal model was selected by comparing the measured and predicted values at approximately 78% accuracy. Ultimately, the rainfall intensity contour lines were used to illustrate the upper and lower rainfall intensity limits that trigger landslides. This study used well-documented spatio-temporal data of landslide events and introduced a primary threshold that can be validated for any future event.

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