Ground Motion Modeling for Seismic Hazard Analysis in the Near-source Regime: An Asperity Model

Abstract—A new, yet simple, method using the asperity model to estimate ground motion in the near-source regime for probabilistic seismic hazard analyses is proposed in this study. This near-source model differs from conventional empirical attenuation equations. It correlates peak ground motions with the local contributing source in terms of the static stress drop released non-uniformly on the causative fault plane rather than with the whole seismic source in terms of magnitude. Here the model is simplified such that ground motions at a rock or firm soil site near extended vertical strike-slip faults are dominated by direct shear waves. The proposed model is tested by comparing its predictions with strong ground motion observations from the 1979 Imperial Valley and the 1984 Morgan Hill earthquakes. The results have revealed that ground motions in the near-source region can be adequately predicted using the asperity model with appropriate calibration factors. The directivity effect of ground motion in the near-source region is negligible for high-frequency accelerations. The cut-off frequency (ƒmax ) at a site is an important parameter in the near-source region. Higher values of ƒmax yield higher estimates of peak ground accelerations. For high-frequency structures, ƒmax should be carefully estimated. In the near- source region both non-uniform and uniform source models can produce non-stationary high-frequency ground motions. Peak motions may not be caused by the nearest sections of the fault (even if the uniform source model is considered).

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