A thermodynamic model for estimating sea and lake ice thickness with optical satellite data

[1] Sea ice is a very important indicator and an effective modulator of regional and global climate change. Current remote sensing techniques provide an unprecedented opportunity to monitor the cryosphere routinely with relatively high spatial and temporal resolutions. In this paper, we introduce a thermodynamic model to estimate sea and lake ice thickness with optical (visible, near-infrared, and infrared) satellite data. Comparisons of nighttime ice thickness retrievals to ice thickness measurements from upward looking submarine sonar show that this thermodynamic model is capable of retrieving ice thickness up to 2.8 m. The mean absolute error is 0.18 m for samples with a mean ice thickness of 1.62 m, i.e., an 11% mean absolute error. Comparisons with in situ Canadian stations and moored upward looking sonar measurements show similar results. Sensitivity studies indicate that the largest errors come from uncertainties in surface albedo and downward solar radiation flux estimates from satellite data, followed by uncertainties in snow depth and cloud fractional coverage. Due to the relatively large uncertainties in current satellite retrievals of surface albedo and surface downward shortwave radiation flux, the current model is not recommended for use with daytime data. For nighttime data, the model is capable of resolving regional and seasonal variations in ice thickness and is useful for climatological analysis.

[1]  R. Colony,et al.  Sea ice motion in response to geostrophic winds , 1982 .

[2]  Ron Kwok,et al.  ICESat over Arctic sea ice: Estimation of snow depth and ice thickness , 2008 .

[3]  Abderrahim Bentamy,et al.  Satellite Estimates of Wind Speed and Latent Heat Flux over the Global Oceans , 2003 .

[4]  Ron Kwok,et al.  ICESat measurements of sea ice freeboard and estimates of sea ice thickness in the Weddell Sea , 2008 .

[5]  J. Walsh,et al.  Toward a Seasonally Ice-Covered Arctic Ocean: Scenarios from the IPCC AR4 Model Simulations , 2006 .

[6]  Knut Stamnes,et al.  The effect of sea ice on the solar energy budget in the atmosphere‐sea ice‐ocean system: A model study , 1994 .

[7]  J. Taylor.  An Introduction to Error Analysis , 1982 .

[8]  T. Laevastu.  Factors affecting the temperature of the surface layer of the sea , 1960 .

[9]  W. Paul Menzel,et al.  Nighttime polar cloud detection with MODIS , 2004 .

[10]  Theodore Joseph Bennett,et al.  A coupled atmosphere-sea ice model study of the role of sea ice in climatic predictability , 1982 .

[11]  Ron Kwok,et al.  Thinning and volume loss of the Arctic Ocean sea ice cover: 2003–2008 , 2009 .

[12]  E. P. Borisenkov,et al.  Thermal Interaction of the Atmosphere and the Hydrosphere in the Arctic , 1971 .

[13]  J. Curry,et al.  An intermediate one‐dimensional thermodynamic sea ice model for investigating ice‐atmosphere interactions , 1993 .

[14]  D. Rothrock,et al.  Thin ice thickness from satellite thermal imagery , 1996 .

[15]  W. Emery,et al.  A younger, thinner Arctic ice cover: Increased potential for rapid, extensive sea‐ice loss , 2007 .

[16]  Edgar L. Andreas,et al.  On the Differences in Ablation Seasons of Arctic and Antarctic Sea Ice , 1982 .

[17]  Dorothy K. Hall,et al.  Sea ice surface temperature product from MODIS , 2004, IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing.

[18]  W. Menzel,et al.  Discriminating clear sky from clouds with MODIS , 1998 .

[19]  Dana E. Veron,et al.  Winter Northern Hemisphere weather patterns remember summer Arctic sea‐ice extent , 2009 .

[20]  P. Guest,et al.  Measurements near the Atmospheric Surface Flux Group tower at SHEBA: Near‐surface conditions and surface energy budget , 2002 .

[21]  Peter J. Webster,et al.  Thermodynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans , 1998 .

[22]  Jeffrey R. Key,et al.  Evaluation of surface radiative flux parameterizations for use in sea ice models , 1996 .

[23]  E. Hunter,et al.  Drivers of declining sea ice in the Arctic winter: A tale of two seas , 2007 .

[24]  Neil Peacock,et al.  High interannual variability of sea ice thickness in the Arctic region , 2003, Nature.

[25]  Ann Henderson-Sellers,et al.  The sensitivity of a thermodynamic sea ice model to changes in surface albedo parameterization , 1985 .

[26]  R. Krishfield,et al.  Beaufort Gyre Freshwater Experiment: Deployment Operations and Technology 2003 , 2004 .

[27]  Dorothy K. Hall,et al.  Sea Ice Surface Temperature Product from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) , 2003 .

[28]  Alan K. Betts,et al.  Evaluation of the diurnal cycle of precipitation, surface thermodynamics, and surface fluxes in the ECMWF model using LBA data , 2002 .

[29]  D. A. Rothrock,et al.  A Thickness and Enthalpy Distribution Sea-Ice Model , 2001 .

[30]  J. Schmetz,et al.  Estimation of daytime downward longwave radiation at the surface from satellite and grid point data , 1986 .

[31]  R. Lindsay.  Temporal Variability of the Energy Balance of Thick Arctic Pack Ice , 1998 .

[32]  G. Maykut,et al.  Some results from a time‐dependent thermodynamic model of sea ice , 1971 .

[33]  Donald K. Perovich,et al.  Seasonal and spatial evolution of albedo in a snow-ice-land-ocean environment , 2004 .

[34]  Donald B. Percival,et al.  The decline in arctic sea‐ice thickness: Separating the spatial, annual, and interannual variability in a quarter century of submarine data , 2008 .

[35]  Y. Yen.  Review of Thermal Properties of Snow, Ice and Sea Ice, , 1981 .

[36]  Charles Fowler,et al.  High-latitude surface temperature estimates from thermal satellite data , 1997 .

[37]  Xuanji Wang,et al.  Recent Trends in Arctic Surface, Cloud, and Radiation Properties from Space , 2003, Science.

[38]  D. A. Rothrock,et al.  Modeling Global Sea Ice with a Thickness and Enthalpy Distribution Model in Generalized Curvilinear Coordinates , 2003 .

[39]  Charles Fowler,et al.  Diurnal cycles in Arctic surface radiative fluxes in a blended satellite-climate reanalysis data set , 2007 .

[40]  K. Shine.  Parametrization of the shortwave flux over high albedo surfaces as a function of cloud thickness and surface albedo , 1984 .

[41]  Jeffrey R. Key,et al.  Arctic Surface, Cloud, and Radiation Properties Based on the AVHRR Polar Pathfinder Dataset. Part I: Spatial and Temporal Characteristics , 2005 .

[42]  William J. Emery,et al.  Evolution of the 2007–2008 Arctic sea ice cover and prospects for a new record in 2008 , 2008 .

[43]  John N. Kemp,et al.  The Beaufort Gyre Observing System 2004: Mooring Recovery and Deployment Operations in Pack Ice , 2005 .

[44]  J. Key,et al.  Expected uncertainty in satellite-derived estimates of the surface radiation budget at high latitudes , 1997 .

[45]  T. Grenfell.  The Effects of Ice Thickness on the Exchange of Solar Radiation Over the Polar Oceans , 1979, Journal of Glaciology.

[46]  T. Saloranta.  Modeling the evolution of snow, snow ice and ice in the Baltic Sea , 2000 .

[47]  Peter A. Rochford,et al.  Efficient and Accurate Bulk Parameterizations of Air-Sea Fluxes for Use in General Circulation Models , 2000 .

[48]  P. E. Church,et al.  Radiation Climate of Barrow Alaska, 1962–66 , 1973 .

[49]  Wilford F. Weeks,et al.  Salinity Variations in Sea Ice , 1974, Journal of Glaciology.

[50]  Josefino C. Comiso,et al.  A rapidly declining perennial sea ice cover in the Arctic , 2002 .

[51]  Charles Fowler,et al.  Spatial and temporal variability of satellite-derived cloud and surface characteristics during FIRE-ACE , 2001 .

[52]  N. Untersteiner.  Calculations of temperature regime and heat budget of sea ice in the central Arctic , 1964 .

[53]  W. Rees.  Infrared emissivities of Arctic land cover types , 1993 .