TECHNOLOGY PUSHES RESERVES 'CRUNCH' DATE BACK IN TIME

Few would seriously dispute the contention that the amount of oil and gas present in the earth is finite. On this truism has grown a pseudo-science of quantitative estimation, which in turn has served as the basis of usually doom-laden forecasts predicting a supply crisis/price crunch some variable number of years ahead. As a generalization, it would appear that the ``crunch`` date has tended to recede in time with successive estimates. Perhaps one of the reasons for this is the lack of clarity about the distinction between technical resources and commercially recoverable reserves, notwithstanding the efforts of bodies as diverse as the Society of Petroleum Engineers and the Securities and Exchange Commission, seeking to bring precision to a vital but inevitably imprecise issue. This is well illustrated by reference to recent revisiting of the Hubbert Curve. At least as far as the US is concerned, this would appear to be one of the more credible models of predicting the ultimate level of discovered resources and hence domestic production. For the rest of the world there appears to be evidence that the reserves peak has been moving to the right: i.e., into the future, which is perhaps readily understandable in themore » light of the intensity of exploration and production applied in the US when compared with other major regions. The paper discusses the published estimates, growth with time, and technology drivers (geoscience, drilling technologies, subsea facilities, fixed platforms, floating production).« less