Comparison of Machine Learning Models in Student Result Prediction

Prediction of result of students in a particular subject based on their performance in continuous assessment during the semester can be accomplished by various available machine learning models. Every model has its own advantage and limitation due to the algorithm on which they work. Linear regression models have been used very popularly in the area of predictive analytics. Artificial neural networks have also proven their capabilities in prediction. Deep learning techniques are a trend nowadays in data analytics due to their accuracy and performance. This research paper will present a comparison of performance of five popular machine learning models used in predictive analytics—generalized linear model, multilayer perceptron, gradient boost model, Random Forest model, and deep neural network. We have used the result data of students at DIT University, Dehradun, which comprises of schooling marks, continuous assessment marks, and final marks in a subject. On the basis of schooling marks and continuous assessment marks, all these models will predict the final marks of a student in the subject. We will then compare and present the result and performance of these five models.

[1]  Tin Kam Ho,et al.  The Random Subspace Method for Constructing Decision Forests , 1998, IEEE Trans. Pattern Anal. Mach. Intell..

[2]  Havan Agrawal,et al.  Student Performance Prediction using Machine Learning , 2015 .

[3]  Ji Kan Evaluation of Mining Engineering technology innovation ability and application based on BP neural network , 2017, 2017 6th International Conference on Industrial Technology and Management (ICITM).

[4]  Shaobo Huang,et al.  Predicting student academic performance in an engineering dynamics course: A comparison of four types of predictive mathematical models , 2013, Comput. Educ..

[5]  S. Eguchi,et al.  Model comparison for generalized linear models with dependent observations , 2016, 1601.01082.

[6]  Václav Snásel,et al.  Metaheuristic design of feedforward neural networks: A review of two decades of research , 2017, Eng. Appl. Artif. Intell..

[7]  Geoffrey E. Hinton,et al.  Learning internal representations by error propagation , 1986 .

[8]  Tin Kam Ho,et al.  A Data Complexity Analysis of Comparative Advantages of Decision Forest Constructors , 2002, Pattern Analysis & Applications.

[9]  Stamos T. Karamouzis,et al.  An Artificial Neural Network for Predicting Student Graduation Outcomes , 2008 .

[10]  Jamalul-lail Ab Manan,et al.  Prediction of engineering students' academic performance using Artificial Neural Network and Linear Regression: A comparison , 2013, 2013 IEEE 5th Conference on Engineering Education (ICEED).

[11]  George Karypis,et al.  Grade prediction with models specific to students and courses , 2016, International Journal of Data Science and Analytics.

[12]  Jürgen Schmidhuber,et al.  Deep learning in neural networks: An overview , 2014, Neural Networks.

[13]  Yoshua Bengio,et al.  Gradient-based learning applied to document recognition , 1998, Proc. IEEE.

[14]  Jürgen Schmidhuber,et al.  LSTM recurrent networks learn simple context-free and context-sensitive languages , 2001, IEEE Trans. Neural Networks.

[15]  J. Nazuno Haykin, Simon. Neural networks: A comprehensive foundation, Prentice Hall, Inc. Segunda Edición, 1999 , 2000 .

[16]  Jubilant J. Kizhakkethottam,et al.  Student Academic Performance Prediction Model Using Decision Tree and Fuzzy Genetic Algorithm , 2016 .

[17]  Wahidah Husain,et al.  A Review on Predicting Student's Performance Using Data Mining Techniques , 2015 .

[18]  Jamalul-lail Ab Manan,et al.  Neural network model to predict electrical students' academic performance , 2012, 2012 4th International Congress on Engineering Education.

[19]  J. Friedman Greedy function approximation: A gradient boosting machine. , 2001 .

[20]  P. McCullagh,et al.  Generalized Linear Models , 1972, Predictive Analytics.

[21]  Frank Rosenblatt,et al.  PRINCIPLES OF NEURODYNAMICS. PERCEPTRONS AND THE THEORY OF BRAIN MECHANISMS , 1963 .

[22]  Yanru Zhang,et al.  A gradient boosting method to improve travel time prediction , 2015 .